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Transnational Thursday for January 16, 2025

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Here are some items I'm looking at this week; discussion & pushback welcome.

Microsoft reveals some details of how an unknown group bypassed their Azure AI API guardrails and created a hacking as a service scheme.

Navy Lookout looks at Russia v. NATO confrontation in the Baltic over the last few months

Mozambique opposition asks help from EU and UN in response to repression by the ruling president

One person dies from Ebola in Sierra Leone.

Finnland seems to have a bit more specific evidence on the internet and power cable cuts, reducing the degree of plausible deniability that Russia and China can claim they have.

Japan panel of experts says probability of "megaquake" in the next 30 years has risen to 80%

"Bomb Iran? Await a Trump Nuclear Deal? Topple the Regime? Israel Weighs Its Options", considers the Israeli newspaper Haaretz.

Iran reinforces their Natanz nuclear facility.

Dubai sends 68 tonnes of urgent medical supplies to Gaza

Iran is also looking to Russia to bolster its defense, and are now set to sign a 'comprehensive strategic partnership' treaty.

Iran also sent a surveillance ship out to sea, but is also holding nuclear talks with Europeans

Israel tried to embed explosivies within centrifuge components bought by Iran, but got caught.

Saudi Arabia announces plans to enrich and sell uranium

Swedish dockworkers vote to block military shipments to and from Israel

Tehran says 5,000 people working to expand Bushehr nuclear plant

China is developing methods to target Starlink satellites

Chinese Wuhan bat virus researcher continues with gain of function research

US adds Chinese company which develops open source LLMs to the entities list, "because these entities advance the People's Republic of China's military modernization through the development and integration of advanced artificial intelligence research". via @bdsqlsz

From the past: China could attack the US with EMPs.

Ukraine and Russia both had large attack waves.

Trump to meet Putin 'very quickly' after taking office

"You can't put a ship over every nautical mile of pipeline or cable -- it's an impossible task," says NATO commander. "There are approximately 50,000 big ships out there worldwide and they can drop anchors and drag them over infrastructure."

Sudan might fracture

In 2024, 444 terrorist attacks against security forces killed 685 personnel in Pakistan.

H5 Bird Flu confirmed in three additional domestic cats in Los Angeles

CDC telling laboratories to test for H5N1 specifically faster

Sierra Leone declares public health emergency over mpox after two new cases

WHO starts $1.5 billion funding appeal

Bird Flu mutations found in Texas

Study finds certain H5N1 strains in cattle linked to milder human illness

TTP abducts 18 Pakistani nuclear engineers, possibly to mask shipments of uranium to Iran.