Let's chat about the National Football League. This thread will be dedicated to all post-season games, including the Super Bowl. This post will be updated with results and schedules going into February (All times Eastern):
Wildcard matchups:
2025-01-11:
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04:30PM: Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston Texans
08:00PM: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
2025-01-12:
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01:00PM: Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills,
04:30PM: Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
08:00PM: Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2025-01-13
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08:00PM: Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Rams
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Notes -
The divisional round will be upon us tomorrow! Lots of familiar faces left in the AFC; in fact this is only the second time in its history that all four finalists from last year made it back to the Divisional Round. The NFC has a lot more turnover, with only the now top-seeded Lions returning from the contenders last year. Let's dive right into the slate:
Houston Texans (+8.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs: After taking care of business at home with a dominant second half against the favored Chargers (rip @Hoffmeister25), the Texans now face a showdown with my Super Bowl favorite, the top-seeded Chiefs. The dominance of the Chiefs in recent years is hard to overstate: they've made four of the past five Super Bowls, winning three, and are on the hunt to be the first team in the history of the league to win three in a row. They seemingly sleepwalked their way to a 15-1 record this season before laying off the gas and resting everyone of importance in their final game
to keep the rival Bengals out of the playoffs. They have the unquestioned best QB, a coach making his case not only as a Hall of Famer but as a GOAT contender, a stifling defense, their best pass catcher dating the biggest superstar in the world, and this year even the hand of God on their side. Seriously, they got to 15-1 with some of the luckiest wins you can think of - a toenail out of bounds, a dropped snap, a blocked field goal, the amount of lucky breaks the Chiefs have had go their way make you believe this team might actually be blessed (whether by God or the devil is probably based on your perspective). There aren't many giving the Texans much of a chance against this Juggernaut, but led by second-year standouts QB CJ Stroud and DE Will Anderson the Texans aren't planning to roll over just yet. Even so, it's hard for me to think they stand a real chance of beating these Chiefs. The spread makes it a much more interesting call. The Chiefs haven't been blowing teams out this year; they only one three games by more than one score, and only one of those was against a team that would make (or even come close to making) the playoffs - the Steelers, whose team nosedived in the last part of the year. In their game less than a month ago (also at Arrowhead), the Chiefs won by 8 - our math-inclined friends will notice this wouldn't cover the current spread. My prediction: Chiefs win, Texans cover.Washington Commanders (+9.5) @ Detroit Lions: Rookie sensation Jayden Daniels continues to lead the Commies to new heights, as they've earned their first trip to the divisional game in almost 20 years. They'll have a tough task in the top-seeded Lions, who dismantled the Vikings in their most recent game and will get back talented running back David Montgomery in a win that looks a little less convincing after the Vikings' subsequent implosion against the Rams this past Monday, but still gives some reinforcement to how good they've been all year. While their defense remains injured to hell and back, they at least saw the return of Alex Anzalone steady the interior of the defense against the Vikings, something that could prove crucial in stopping the non-Terry McLaurin parts of Washington's passing attack. The Commander's defense, meanwhile, inspires little confidence that it will be able to stop the best offense in the league, absolutely chock-ful of weapons and led by the resilient Jared Goff at QB, supported by a line that if not the best in the league is at worst top-2. While their defense hasn't been on that level, they should be able to handle what is essentially a two-man Washington offense (WR Terry McLaurin and the aforementioned Daniels) enough that their offense can win this game without too much trouble.
Los Angeles Rams (+6) @ Philadelphia Eagles: After a week dealing with the LA wildfires ravaging the city and forcing the game out of Sofi, the Rams said fuck this noise and hammered the Vikings, considered one of the top teams in the conference. In the span of eight days, the Vikings went from playing for the one seed to out of the playoffs entirely (with free-agent-to-be Sam Darnold likely losing himself millions if not tens-of-millions of dollars in the process); life comes at you fast. A fairly mediocre defense during the season, the Rams dismantled a Vikings offense that had looked potent before their ten-day collapse; they managed to tie the playoff record with NINE sacks of Darnold. Now they come up against another of the best teams in the conference in @FiveHourMarathon 's Eagles, who are coming off a fairly easy win over the Packers in a game that felt decided after the opening kickoff. Despite a pretty painless walk to the finish, the Eagles' inability to bury the Pack after a nightmare first half was pretty confusing to some, including yours truly; they may have felt as most of us watching did (ie that as long as they didn't try and hand the game directly to the Pack, they could mosey to a win without much trouble), but it was odd that they never seemed to want to go for the killshot and just let them bleed out. A pedestrian outing by QB Jalen Hurts and newly-revealed bookworm AJ Brown didn't matter much in this game, but a better performance out of the passing game will likely be needed to beat a Rams team with a lot of playoff experience on the offensive side between renowned head coach Sean McVay, QB Matt Stafford and former Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp, plus fantastic second-year receiver Puka Nacua and solid RB Kyren Williams. They're not quite as good as Philly's Big Three weapons in Saquon, Brown and WR Devonta Smith, but it's a very strong group. Philly will have a much more pronounced advantage in the less-sexy parts of their team; they continue to have arguably (see my comment on Detroit) the best offensive line in the league and a smothering defense, two things that have not been the case for the Rams this season. I expect Philly's offense to give a better showing than it did against the Packers, and as long as they don't fall asleep against the Ram's excellent passing attack they should control this game (though not quite to the degree they did against the Packers). I'll pick them both to win and cover the spread.
Baltimore Ravens (-1) @ Buffalo Bills: The marquee matchup of the week. The two top MVP candidates face off for a trip to
face the Chiefs inthe AFC Championship game. Unquestionably the most hyped playoff match of the year so far. These two played in September, with the Ravens smoking the Bills 35-10 in either Josh Allen's worst or second-worst game of the year - he had a rough two-week stretch between this game and the following one against the Texans (who coincidentally are also left in the bracket); of course, both teams have played a lot of ball since then, and relying too much on a game three and a half months ago to predict the playoff rematch isn't wise. Both teams looked good in the wild card, rolling to easy victories over the Steelers and Broncos, respectively. Personally I think the Ravens are probably the better overall team, but the margins are slim enough that the home-field advantage might really matter, particularly for a cold weather team like the Bills. My head says the Ravens are the smart choice, but despite my Jets fandom my heart is pulling for the Bills. Personally I think Josh Allen deserves the MVP (due in part to thinking the Ravens are the better overall team), which shouldn't factor into predicting this game specifically but (even though it has no effect on the voting, which was already completed) still makes it really hard to pick his biggest competitor over him; plus, the Bills are too good to be an underdog at home to anyone in my view. In the end, I'll take @Walterodim (and my girlfriend's) Bills to win outright.It's an interesting field this year. Good chance that the only real game is in Buffalo, the others being pretty low stakes by playoff standards and likely to be less competitive. In my mind the tiers of teams in terms of pressure are:
Playing With House Money: Washington, Texans, Chiefs, Rams. All four teams here are, for different reasons, already satisfied with their team outcomes and have nothing to prove. Washington has made it far behind a OROY QB in Daniels, and will have the opportunity to add talent and beat out a cursed Eagles team (no consecutive NFCE winners since Andy Reid) and a suddenly in transition Cowboys squad (Deion Sanders taking over the Cowboys would be hilarious and I've no doubt it would end horribly) for the division. The Texans faced a lot of skill-player injuries, but their win over the Chargers was proof of concept for their defense and offense. Both teams figure to be better next year. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have nothing to show to anyone, they're under no pressure here. Kelce may move on after this year, but the team has weathered so many skill player losses already that it's hard not to think they'll handle this one. Win or lose, they'll be back next year. The Rams are the opposite: they were supposed to be in the wilderness with an aging core after selling out for the Super Bowl win a few years back, and it looks like the band had one more show in them. It's understood that Stafford is moving on, but it's amazing he's still here, nobody's job or legacy is on the line this weekend.
Perpetual Bridesmaids: Ravens, Bills, Eagles. All these teams have their QBs signed (one of these things is not like the others!), have made the playoffs with most of the same cast and crew in prior years, and will have most of the same core again next year and possibly the year after that. But none have won the Super Bowl with the current core, and only the Eagles have made it, getting filleted by Patty Mahomes in the big game instead of cockblocked from getting there at all. All three teams will see some sniping about ability to get all the way if they don't hoist a Lombardi, but all three had good seasons and will return most of the same team next year. They face a lot more pressure than the last tier, but not nearly as much as the one team saying
This is Our Year: the Detroit Lions. The Motor City Kitties of Football have more urgency than any other team on this list. The Lions are coming off decades of futility, and their team is going to change drastically next year, with one or both of their coordinators likely to take head coaching jobs elsewhere, and the roster set for turnover. They might never get another chance like this, with the one seed and a tight knit team ready to run through a wall to win.
So as a result, looking at the three predicted blowouts, I think the most likely upset is the Commies over the Lions. The Commies are playing loose and easy, and they've shown no fear in deep water with multiple huge comeback wins. The Lions meanwhile have the pressure hanging over them that if they don't win this game the season is a failure. Jayden Daniels leading a comeback drive to win the game against this battered Lions offense will be a threat unless the Lions put the Commies away. I"m still betting on, and rooting for, the Lions, but I think they're the most likely to fall. The Chiefs just don't seem likely to lose to a team they just beat, while there is no analytical reason beyond variance and losing Nakobe Dean that the Rams will beat the Eagles.
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