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I think the only thing which saves Ukraine as a generally independent political entity is a comprehensive treaty between the US and Russia dealing with all sorts of issues from trade, weapons cooperation/limitations, finance exchanges, territorial disagreements (and ones which will develop in the near future), technology exchange, and a long list of other things Putin has wanted for decades and has been unable to get thus far. In that discussion, Ukraine isn't even in the top 5 things which Russia wants. In that list, the US would be able to get some concessions in the Ukraine conflict which doesn't result in rump-state Ukraine with a puppet government.
Since the only thing I've heard so far from Trump&Co and the idiots briefing him on this conflict, is some goofball ceasefire with Euro troops enforcing a demilitarized zoned and/or NATO membership delay, we're not even in the zipcode of an agreement Russia would find palatable.
If the only topic is Ukraine, Russia will not agree to anything less than international recognition of the full territory of all oblasts it has already inducted into the Russian Federation, constitutionally guaranteed neutrality and disarmament with inspections, constitutional protections for Russian speakers, constitutional protections for the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, some sort of "de-Nazification" program, and a removal of all or nearly all sanctions against Russia with some sort of guarantee going forward they won't be put back in place the moment it's convenient.
Otherwise, there isn't a strong enough reason for Russia to stop this war. They are clearly winning now and disarming Ukraine by destroying their armies (not to mention draining the armories and treasuries of Europe) on the battlefield and an alarming % of the able-bodied male population between the ages of 21-60. Their military is larger, better armed, and more capable now than they were 3 years ago. Russia has already spent the political and social capital to mobilize men and industry to seriously fight this conflict.
I've found this topic to be difficult to discuss on this forum because of the chasm between how I and others view the reality of this war on the ground. For, e.g., I would estimate there are over 600,000 Ukrainians killed with the total number of dead and seriously wounded to be over 1,000,000 men.
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