This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
Spitballing some factors for a completely ridiculous hypothetical that is never going to happen, but is funny to think about.
Remember how important it was for Ukrainian will in putting up organized resistance to have Zelensky making big decisions, appearing in videos, rallying folks? How the Russians wanted to claim that he had fled, because that would make it seem more like a fait accompli, but they could just counter that by videos of him? Canada will have no PM for the next couple months. There is no face of the government. No voice to rally around. No one clearly in charge of making the big decisions. The next couple months are sort of a unique opportunity. Ideally after Trudeau has been out long enough that the conversation has moved on enough that it's basically impossible for him to slip back into the leadership role by default, but not delayed so long that narratives have formed around potential replacements to the point that people have positive thoughts along the lines of, "Our sacred political process is selecting a new leader, and we need to support the outcome of the process." You need them to still be sort of scrambling a bit to have any vision of where the country could go. The countervailing factor is that Trump is just now regaining power in the US. He has enough on his plate just asserting his control over the bureaucracy and hasn't had time in office to make the necessary preparations to exploit this moment. ....but assuming he somehow could....
Presumably, the military has someone who is effectively in control, but how many people know who that person is? On paper, it's King Charles. Lol. On paper, that authority is delegated to the Governor General of Canada. Just look at her. "An Inuk leader from Nunavik in Quebec, Simon is the first aboriginal person to hold the office," says Wikipedia. Closer to reality, one would point at the Minister of National Defense or perhaps the Chief of the Defense Staff. Again, for the latter, she's career military, but kinda just look at her? Also take note, Wiki says, "Marie Annabelle Jennie Carignan was born in 1968, and grew up in Asbestos, Quebec, in a French-speaking household."
So, I'm thinking a couple things. First, plan real hard for a targeted killing of the Minister of National Defense. Sparks massive confusion within the apparatus as to who is in charge. Let them see if they want to make one of the two women the face of their defense. Second, figure out the right moment to back-channel comms to Quebecois leadership (even explicitly loop in the Quebecoise Chief of the National Defense Staff), pretty much right at the moment of the surprise invasion. Let them know that you will not be entering Quebec and that if Quebec would like to remain an independent nation, you will absolutely support them. Be extremely open if they give you any positive signs, especially if they request additional French-speaking territories nearby; concede them immediately.
You can occupy Toronto/Ottawa within 24 hours, almost guaranteed. Use cyber and other means if necessary to kill CBC/CTV. It's debatable whether trying to turn the lights out on their internet will do more harm than good. If you can rely on Elon enough just to kill any tweets promoting or displaying violent resistance, you might be okay. Each province has unique reasons for disliking the rule of Toronto/Ottawa; leverage province-specific expertise to tailor your propaganda specifically to those grievances, promising that much of their provincial control over local matters will be preserved. Frankly, what the northern territories think doesn't matter. They're probably also unlikely to be the ones who are going to be engaging in significant asymmetric warfare.
Who will have the will to fight? Who will have the means to organize? What leadership would they organize around, and what paltry military assets would they have to leverage, anyway? Cruise missiles in the middle of the night, upon initiation of hostilities, can almost certainly take out many of their most concerning assets. What other countries would even want to come to their aid, much less have the means to provide it across the oceans in a remotely timely fashion? The world would be utterly shocked, because this is, indeed, a ridiculous hypothetical and America Just Does Not Do This. They would be crippled, worrying more about what this means for NATO, Pax Americana, and their own regional security situation than they would be able to project power and aid Canadian resistance.
There might be pockets of asymmetric warfare; there always will be. The question is what percent and where, whether you can reduce the spread of information about isolated attacks (plausible, given how sparsely populated much of Canada is). Cities are always the major concern, so probably the biggest questions will be extremely localized in certain cities. This is where armchair hypothesizing probably has to end and genuine, very specific intelligence has to come into play.
The grunts in the Canadian military are actually pretty good, and our whole tactical model has been based on autonomous small-unit ops for like a hundred years -- if you assassinated the whole DND you would probably increase effectiveness if anything.
Now would definitely be the time though; you'd need to turn some folks and set up a Vichy thing probably -- maybe Max Bernier is interested in being King of Canada?
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link