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Transnational Thursday for January 2, 2025

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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As a pro-ukrainian european I‘ve warmed to a freezing of the conflict on something like the trump plan:

  • everyone stays where they are
  • no recognition of lost sovereignity by ukraine
  • no formal defensive guarantees for now
  • continued arms shipments for ukraine
  • limited sanctions relief for russia

Zelensky should just accept trump's compromise and when putin likely rejects, enjoy increased american support. If putin accepts, the plan is to wait until he dies. It‘s unlikely he can mobilize his population and economy much further if there is no war on, so given some western support, ukraine can likely maintain enough strength not to be eaten bit by bit on the short timescale of putin‘s remaining life. Putin‘s also very unlikely to try anything else against nato if there‘s unfinished business/ a large ukrainian army waiting for an opportunity to reclaim their land behind a ceasefire line.

It‘s unlikely he can mobilize his population and economy much further if there is no war on

There's a bit of a revolving door, though, from Chechnya to Syria to Ukraine. Possibly gearing up for Libya next? If Putin needs a war to accomplish his domestic goals, he's shown he can generate one.