whenhaveiever
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User ID: 3296
whenhaveiever
7d ago
He really wasn't. His speech ended at 1:10pm. The first barriers were breached at 1:50. At 2:38 he tweeted "Stay peaceful." At 3:13 he tweeted "No violence." By 3:19 the Rotunda is cleared and fitting is moved outside and into the tunnel. The video linked above was posted at 4:17pm, and is the first time he tells people to go home.
whenhaveiever
8d ago
This doesnt make sense. Trump is clearly telling people to go home, AKA OFF SWITCH.
Hours later, too late to make a difference anyway. Was someone stopping him from speaking out earlier?
whenhaveiever
8d ago
If Trump had wanted a full on armed coup, he had command of the military at that point, and as far as I know it's never been claimed that Trump tried to issue illegal orders that day. And it is worth remembering that a relatively small percentage of the people at his speech actually went to the Capitol, and only a smaller percentage of them went inside.
On the other hand, if Trump was shocked and appalled at the riot, he could have spoken up a lot sooner. Even this video is mostly taken up with reiterating claims that the election was stolen, justifying the riot while asking for it to stop.
I've seen someone else on The Motte say that Republicans view political violence as an on-off switch, while Democrats view it as a dial. On that day, in the context of the BLM riots that weren't that long beforehand, I think Trump saw violence as a dial. People who continue to see if as a switch either condemn Trump for attempting a coup (switch was on) or dismiss the entire thing as a nothingburger (switch was off).
whenhaveiever
8d ago
Wasn't that video posted hours into the events that day, after it was too late to make a difference anyway?
whenhaveiever
14d ago
Yeah, if I'd had to guess, I wouldn't have expected it to be available either. But even if it wasn't, someone motivated to kill will find a way.
It's the car version of the skinny guy popping out of the bulky body builder.
Edit: it turns out, I don't know how to include links, but it's that body builder meme from years ago.
whenhaveiever
14d ago
Most people don't want to bomb anyone. Oh, they may cheer for the Luigis of the world, but most people personally have more to lose from their current life than they would gain by bombing anyone. It's the only way peace ever works.
whenhaveiever
14d ago
I think the important question is how do you interpret things like the sabotage to various undersea cables in the Baltic, break-ins at Finnish water plants, GPS jamming, bombs on cargo planes, etc? Maybe what we've seen is the extent of Russia's capabilities, relatively minor annoyances or distractions that Russia knows won't cross the line and require retaliation. Or maybe it's the tip of the iceberg, tests of more comprehensive attack systems that Putin plans to one day deploy fully against the West. Does he see himself more as the great crusader who will reclaim Russia's lost glory, or as the vanguard who will be content merely holding the line against the West without giving up too much more?
If Putin eventually wants an escalated war, we'll get one, and if that's the case then it's in the West's interest to keep him fighting in Ukraine where he can spend his country's blood and treasure with minimal risk to the rest of us non-Ukrainians in the meantime. But he does seem to be signaling that he'd accept peace under Trump, suggesting that he wants to withdraw but what he really needs is the cover to maintain face. We'll see soon enough, I guess. But if the war in Ukraine ends, or at least gets downgraded to Russia vs just Ukraine, what does Putin do next? Do we enter together into a new era of peace, or does that just let him redirect his efforts to his next goal? And where will that be?
whenhaveiever
14d ago
It‘s unlikely he can mobilize his population and economy much further if there is no war on
There's a bit of a revolving door, though, from Chechnya to Syria to Ukraine. Possibly gearing up for Libya next? If Putin needs a war to accomplish his domestic goals, he's shown he can generate one.
whenhaveiever
1mo ago
Perplexity tells me the difference between criminally negligent homicide and second degree manslaughter in New York is in the defendant's state of mind. Under criminally negligent homicide, the person failed to perceive the risk of death, while under second degree manslaughter, they were aware of the risk of death but consciously disregarded that risk.
With bystanders saying Neely was going to die, combined with Penny's training, it seems hard to justify the idea that he just didn't see a risk of death from a six-minute chokehold, including nearly a minute after he went limp. The trial's outcome could be reasonable if the jury agreed that Penny knew what he was doing while disagreeing on whether he was justified in doing it.
whenhaveiever
1mo ago
Trump in 2019 forced providers to publish price lists, which I'd have though might improve things, but it doesn't really seem to have.
Price transparency is always better because it cuts down on asymmetric info and makes the market more efficient, but I think the effect from these is mostly going to be behind the scenes, from the perspective of the average consumer.
For one thing, you can't pick and choose which insurance company pays for which service. If Walmart is charging less for a product that I usually buy at Target, I can just buy that one thing at Walmart and keep buying my other stuff from Target. I can't do that with medical services.
Also, even with a publicly-available price list, I can only use that list if I know exactly which line on the massive spreadsheet actually applies to me. And then, what do I do with that info? If my open enrollment period is coming up and I know I have a major procedure after that, I could do the research and switch plans, but how many people are in that position?
whenhaveiever
1mo ago
Assuming you're not allowed to go completely off the rails from the curriculum, each of the topics you mention can be a natural hook into more current issues.
- AIDS/SARS of course leads to covid and other public health concerns, which in turn leads to global trade, supply chains, the recent inflation, etc.
- Millennium development goals are done now, so the discussion of which succeeded and which failed can lead to the development of China and the massive fall in poverty there, but also the pivot to the SDGs and the greater proportion of diplomatic effort being spent on climate issues. (I see the debate about climate below, but I don't think it can be denied that lots of people consider it the "world issue" and ignoring it just lets your students be fed less rational stories about it by other people.)
- UN peacekeeping leads to current peacekeeping efforts in Israel/Palestine, but also why no one really talks about "UN peacekeeping" anymore, and how the idea of peacekeeping has changed from the Balkans through the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Ukraine how the balance of global power shifted with the fall of the USSR, the rise of China and the expansion of NATO.
- Third-world debt and the IMF leads to the PIIGS and the Great Recession, which leads to first world sovereign debt, the recent inflation and global trade and telecommunications. Your students probably don't appreciate how new and remarkable it is that you, a private citizen, can sit in your bed with your phone and just buy something from someone in China. Or how expensive it used to be to call other countries. Which in turn leads to how much those capabilities depend on international infrastructure that turns out to be pretty vulnerable to sabotage, or satellites, which is a good time to bring up the changes in the space industry and how that might shape the world going forward.
whenhaveiever
1mo ago
Could it be that brilliant liars are simply smart enough to lie convincingly and are never found out?
whenhaveiever
1mo ago
This is a hilarious response now that you've edited the original. Just totally out of left field, no warning at all.
I know absolutely nothing about finasteride except what you've typed here and let me just say this does not sound like a ringing endorsement.
whenhaveiever
2mo ago
I'm not sure if this counts as modern, but have you seen Robert Duvall's The Apostle from 1997 focusing on Southern Pentecostal Christianity?
For all that the lead character is flawed, he is portrayed as actually believing what he claims to believe, and apparently a lot of the side characters are "played" by normal people Duvall met while traveling in the South researching the film.
The plot rhymes with Blues Brothers in a few places, except that the Christianity of the Blues Brothers is a joke played for laughs while the Christianity of The Apostle is played straight.
whenhaveiever
2mo ago
Could they get the new justice through in time? 56 days until the next Congress convenes. From Ginsburg's death to Barrett's confirmation was 38 days but from Breyer's announcement to Jackson's confirmation was 70. Biden would just about need someone ready to go already and then they could only lose one of Manchin or Sinema to still confirm the new nominee. Republicans would pull out all the stops and they don't have to delay things all that long, especially over the holidays and with the debt ceiling fight coming up too.
Edit: It would be quite a risk for Sotomayor to voluntarily step down at this point, and she may judge that it's less of a risk to stay in.
whenhaveiever
2mo ago
I think the defining centerpoint of Biden's legacy will be choosing to run for re-election then dropping out after the first debate. Lots of other things happened in the world while Biden was nearby but that's the one where his personal actions had the most impact and where he most deviated from historical norms.
And I don't think he can redefine his legacy at this point. Nothing requiring physically moving or making anything could possibly be finished in time unless it was already started. Nothing requiring negotiation is going to succeed because there's no point in negotiating with him now. And anything that doesn't require negotiation will either be completely insignificant or immediately overturned by a Trump executive order. Maybe Biden will be nearby during some other significant thing in the next two months but otherwise I think his legacy is set.
whenhaveiever
2mo ago
It's because the votes aren't done being counted yet. As I write this, California is only reporting 59% so far, and they'll probably add a few million by themselves. Also, since you wrote your comment, Harris has already gained about three million votes and is sitting just over 69 million. Polymarket expects her to end up near 76-78 million, and there's little doubt she'll have the second highest vote total of any Democrat ever. There's nothing here that needs any deeper explanation.
whenhaveiever
2mo ago
Definitely the chip. Side effects from direct electrical stimulation seem far more knowable and controllable than from whatever this molecule happens to be doing when it's not in the one place we want it to be.
Probably wouldn't really get either though. I'm happy to let others be beta testers.
whenhaveiever
2mo ago
Are you saying don't drink acetaminophen based on the risk of overdose, or for another reason?
I ask as I often give my toddler liquid acetaminophen for teething.
whenhaveiever
2mo ago
I'm partial to the Oregon Trail generation, for those of us who played Oregon Trail in school, which ends up being sort of midway between X and Millennials. It also emphasizes that we grew up with tech but still remember when tech was new.
whenhaveiever
3mo ago
I've idly wondered before how hard something like Meshtastic would be, so this has definitely got me interested.
How did you choose the Heltec v3 over the many other options?
Are "guerilla installations" common in the Meshtastic community?
He was on Twitter during the riot, tweeting multiple times with messages to the rioters, including to "stay peaceful," although he didn't say anything like "go home" until after the rioters had already mostly been cleared from the building.
There's lots about Trump's inner thoughts that isn't publically known, but he clearly knew about the riot as it was happening. Even if he hadn't been tweeting to the rioters, it would be a difficult to defend the stance that the President of the United States of America in 2021 could go for literal hours without knowing there was a riot at the US Capitol.
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