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I think at least Re: Zelensky, there is a plausible, well worn model: Follow the money. Specifically, Zelensky and many of the people that kept Kiev Ukrainian have patrons in Western Europe, patrons whose interests are not served at all (or mostly not) by a government in exile. Since Euromaiden there has been lots of investment in Ukraine. Investments that would be seized and redistributed to Russian oligarchs if Ukraine falls. There are lots of politicians who have a finger in these investments. Some of the legitimate kind, and many of the Paul Manafort/Hunter Biden grifty kind. Sure, being under Putin would be a bit worse for the average Ukrainian, and some people legitimately believe in spreading Democracy, but its much easier to understand if you realize that there are large interests in maintaining a West-friendly kleptocracy, as well as lots of interests in spending lots of money to make things go boom, and Americans and Europeans have no stomach for their own boys doing this at the moment, so Ukrainian boys making Russian boys go boom with Lockheed supplies is great for business.
I don't think that answers the question at all.
Let's accept all your assumptions, I'm still left asking how Victoria Fucking Nuland was sitting in an office in Foggy Bottom and saw the Jewish comedian doing gay Cossack bits on tv and said "That's our guy, he won't let us down. Under pressure he's gonna blossom into a wartime leader." With that talent spotting ability, I hope the Eagles bring her in for the combine!
Saying he's a ride-or-die corrupt criminal is just changing the phrasing of the question.
Both are far too valorizing of Zelensky. He just kept making the choice that was best for him personally. If I do a date-limited search about him you get results like this:
Right Before the Invasion: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/21/opinion/ukraine-russia-zelensky-putin.html
The tenor of all the articles I found is this: Zelensky is inherently an actor, he plays what role he thinks suits him.
Now lets go right after: https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/25/europe/volodymyr-zelensky-profile-cmd-intl
Tenor is: He's picked his role, and that role is hardass.
Now a few months after the invasion: https://www.wsj.com/articles/who-is-volodymyr-zelensky-ukrainian-president-11646161781
Grizzled face of the Ukrainian resistance.
But what changed about his posture? Nothing ever. He just kept doing what was best for his image, and the press slowly came around to embracing the image that gave him the most prestige and power. The posture has allowed him to crack down on domestic opposition parties, Russian-connected and not. Its gotten his country a military slush fund. What would fleeing have brought him? An end to his political power, an end to his future financial prospects, and embarrassment as Ukrainian militias kept up the fight as he hides in Warsaw.
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That seems underestimate likely effects given all that "Ukraine is fake country, Ukrainians are Russians" and so on from Putin and Russia.
though yes, this + realpolitik is explanation why there is interest here, and Armenia gets ignored.
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