This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
I'm not sure if I understand the point you're making.
Hispanic Republican voteshare%:
2012 Hispanic: 27
2016 Hispanic: 28
2020 Hispanic: 32
2024 Hispanic: 46
Looking at the first three numbers, I would project the next one to be 32-36. Not 46. I think expecting people to predict that is unreasonable.
It would be unreasonable to expect anyone to predict a spike of that magnitude, yes.
It's not unreasonable to expect that the Republican share of the Hispanic vote would be broadly commensurate with recent historical trends. The impression I get is that there are a lot of Democrats (perhaps not senior DNC figures, but certainly pundits and ordinary voters) who still can't quite believe how popular Trump is among Hispanics, respond to all the evidence in support of this trend by sticking their fingers in their ears, take the Latin vote for granted, then get continually caught out when a larger and larger share of Hispanics vote Republican each campaign. Every four years, the same chorus of shock and horror: "how could you have voted for him?! Don't you realise he wants to sic ICE on you?!"
It was reasonable for certain Democrats to go into the 2024 presidential election anticipating that 68-64% of Hispanic voters would vote for them, then get blindsided by only 54% of them doing so. A jump of that size is hard to predict.
It was not reasonable for other Democrats to go into the 2024 presidential election expecting only a single-digit percentage of Hispanics to vote for Trump, then get blindsided when nearly half of them did. The idea that only a single-digit percentage of Hispanics would vote for Trump was wishful thinking, wholly unsupported by polling data or voting trends from recent elections. Anyone who believed this ought to have known better.
I guess Im not convinced they thought that. Like if you had that you could basically stop campaigning at all. Hillary at one point did seem to think she had won already, I dont think they did this time.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link