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He's more right then you are. I added a reply to Hus comment with a link to a breakdown of German crime numbers by ethnicity, which is a better metric than the general murder rate.
If he asserts that Romania is safer than Ireland, I provide evidence to show that Romania in fact has a higher murder rate than Ireland - how does a breakdown of violent crime by ethnicity prove me wrong? I don't dispute that a disproportionate share of violent crime in Europe is committed by recent migrants from outside of Europe. That doesn't change the fact that Romania's murder rate is higher than Ireland's.
Isn’t it a bit more complicated compared to looking at just murder rates? Let’s say Population X worldwide commits crime at rate of 2/100. Population Y 1/100.
Country A has a tough on crime policy that lowers both rates by 10%. Country B has a lax on crime policy that increases both rates by 10%. But Country A has a materially higher rate of Population X compared to Country B whereas B has a higher rate of Population Y.
Country B will have a lower crime rate but it won’t be because of policy and indeed the more the demographics shifted the higher the crime rate of B will climb.
I’m not saying that describes Ireland or Romania. To be honest, I don’t know either well enough to make this claim. But the concept seems reasonable.
Whatever the underlying reason for it, I think if you want to argue that Country X is more dangerous than Country Y (because of the different policies/demographic makeup/policing approach in the two countries) - your argument falls at the first hurdle if Country Y is actually more dangerous than Country X.
Would Ireland have a lower murder rate if we allowed in fewer immigrants from certain countries? Almost certainly yes. Doesn't change the fact that Ireland's current murder rate with its current population constitution has a lower murder rate than Romania.
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