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Transnational Thursday for November 21, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Stuff I'm tracking this week

Top items:

  • Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea cut, Germany and Finland fear, sabotage suspected
  • Ukraine fired UK, US missiles into Russia. Russia retaliated by sending an ICBM-lite missile into Ukraine
  • Sweden sent a brochure to its citizens "in case of crisis or war". Seems worth reading
  • The Adani empire is stumbling a bit.

T-Mobile hacked as part of a broader Chinese effort.

Nearly 100 trucks carrying food for Palestinians were looted in Gaza. Hamas security forces retaliated by killing over 20 gang members involved in the looting. Israel cited distribution challenges as the main obstacle in aiding Gaza.

China-Pakistan to conduct joint military/anti-terrorist exercise

Maybe worth purchasing big ticket items soon, before Trump tariffs hit.

DeepSeek will release large models

Russia / Ukraine heating up a bit.

volcano erupted in Indonesia.

US Secret Service using data from phones to locate users, without a warrant

Talks between Hezbollah, Lebanon and Israel are ongoing, with talks being between Israel and Lebanon, and Israel wanting to preserve its ability to attack Hezbollah if needed.

Biden authorizes Ukraine to use US-supplied longer range missiles for deeper strikes inside Russia

Deutsche Welle reports that a chance in Russia's nuclear doctrine preceeded the US allowing Ukraine to use long-range weapons.

300 Colombian mercenaries killed in Ukraine, out of 500 that went there

Russia has begun production of nuclear shelters

Russia Today, a Russian state-affiliated media outlet summarizes the key changes in Russia's new nuclear policy

CNN looks at some satellite images of the infrastructure damage in Ukraine

China and Russia are acting together in the Artic

Special US-Russia Hotline To Defuse Crises Not In Use, Says Kremlin

Zelensky gave an interview to Fox News, in which he recognizes that Ukraine probably wouldn't be able to survive without US support.

Greek Intelligence declassifies reports on 1974 coup and Turkish invasion

Pakistan starts a larger operation against Balochistan terrorists

US arms stockpiles strained by Ukraine, Israel support, says the head of US Indo-Pacific Command.

First case of clade I mpox diagnosed in the US

Trump seemed to confirm on Truth Social that he'd declare a national emergency and use military assets to institute a mass deportation program

WHO added another mpox vaccine to their emergency listing. This allows countries & procurement processes to coordinate a bit better around acquiring it.

EU isn't cutting antibiotic use fast enough to slow antibiotic resistance, the EU CDC says

H5N1 bird flu infects six more humans in California, Oregon

Here is an overview of nuclear events

Here are a few bullet points on the "Talibanization of Bangladesh"

"300 Colombian mercenaries killed in Ukraine, out of 500 that went there"

This is according to Russia, btw.

" “We have some records, but what the Russian government informed us—and this requires verification—is that about 500 Colombians participated on the Ukrainian side. Of these, around 100 have returned to Colombia, 100 have deserted, and roughly 300 to 310 have been killed,” Murillo said."

Nearly 100 trucks carrying food for Palestinians were looted in Gaza. Hamas security forces retaliated by killing over 20 gang members involved in the looting. Israel cited distribution challenges as the main obstacle in aiding Gaza.

Here I'd like to call out the fact that I don't see a reason why Hamas is any more entitled to have the food than the "gang members". Hamas is a gang like any other, maybe the largest and the most violent one, and maybe having the most success in controlling the food sent from abroad and thus maintaining its edge over other gangs - but I don't see why they would be allowed any more legitimacy than any other gang. The main obstacle is, indeed, that the food ends up in hands of violent gangs - either Hamas or other one - and the only way to get fed is to either associate with one of the gangs or to pay them for the food, and if you don't want to do either, you get no food. This is a huge problem but we shouldn't pretend Hamas is any different, and they have legitimate claim while "looters" do not.

Hamas is (still?) the governing power in Gaza, having been voted into power by the population in as fair and free an election as it is probably possible to get in Gaza. Despite all their corruption, authoritarianism, and just plain bad decision making, that still gives them an edge over the other competing gangs. Plus, being bigger and stronger than the rest counts for something on its own.

"Governing" here is a very murky term. Sure, they are the biggest and the meanest of the gangs, but so what? Among any set of gangs, there would be one that is the biggest and the meanest. They didn't have any process that resembles free election even remotely - they had a gang war with FATAH in which they emerged victorious, and slaughtered or exiled anybody who was affiliated with the competing gang. Being the strongest gang counts for something, sure, but that something shouldn't earn them any legitimacy in the eyes of people who should know better.

I don't necessarily disagree, but to me the most salient fact is that there is not a clearly dominant gang that can keep the peace.

he'd declare a national emergency and use military assets to institute a mass deportation program

That makes a lot of sense. Military knows how to house, feed and clothe large groups of people, and has logistical chains to do stuff like that. Why reinvent the wheel?