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PaperclipPerfector  15d ago (text post)   29556 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of November 18, 2024

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While that’s a strategic Russian victory- at least in the short to medium term- it’s also a huge lift, Germany knows what side of the bread is buttered. You can expect Europe to stick with the states despite the usual grumbling in every scenario short of unilateral U.S. nato withdrawal or civil war.

To be frank, I don't think Germany (or most of NATO) knows shit. They've been getting hard carried for over half a century now and have consistently demonstrated an inability to act either in their own interest or when prodded by the US. They basically exist (along with much of NATO) as the laziest vassal states of all time. If the US withdrew and Russia announced an invasion of Poland in 2034 I doubt Germany would respond until he was past Warsaw, more likely they'd do nothing and surrender when he got to the Neisse river.

Germany has been sitting around on the fence despite all the butter we've put on their bread for years. I suspect that they think that Russia is permanent and must be negotiated with, and that one of these days the United States is going to nope off into another isolationist fit (they're probably correct). So while I agree it's a huge lift and don't predict it, I get the feeling people overestimate German resolve for a confrontation with Russia.

You can expect Europe to stick with the states despite the usual grumbling in every scenario short of unilateral U.S. nato withdrawal or civil war.

I would add at least one more scenario: Trump releases evidence that the US blew up Nordstream. (NB: I'm not claiming that's what happened. Just a black swan that popped into my head!)

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