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PaperclipPerfector  1d ago (text post)   694 thread views

Transnational Thursday for November 7, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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The latest Forsa/INSA polls from 05.11 give the following ratings (averaged):

  • C*U: 32%
  • AfD: 17%
  • SPD: 16%
  • The Greens: 10%
  • BSW: 7%
  • FDP: 4%
  • The Left: 3%
  • Others: 11%

I assume both the SPD and the FDP will lose a bit of popularity after Scholz's gambit, but assuming the numbers remain stable, what are the possible coalitions? GroKo (C*U + SPD) is an obvious choice, but what if the SPD doesn't want to play second fiddle? I assume that they have to somehow assemble a coalition that is bigger than the C*U, but who can they turn to?

  • AfD is firewalled

  • FDP is the reason why their coalition fell apart

  • SPD + The Greens is just 26%

  • SPD + The Greens + The Left is 29%

  • SPD + BSW + The Left is 27% and I doubt these two red parties will agree to work together

  • SPD + The Greens + BSW is 33%, but The Greens hate BSW, plus this will lose to C*U + FDP or C*U + The Greens

C*U + BSW? No less reasonable than C*U + SPD, and Wagenknecht can't complain about playing second fiddle.

That's not even 40% of the vote?

As long as FDP, Linke + Others stay below 5% each while still adding up to almost 20% it might be enough.

Don't know how they do things in Germany exactly, but votes don't necessarily translate to seats 1:1. It's been a while since I bothered voting but 30+% was often enough to form a stable government, depending on how the competition did.

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