site banner

U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread

With apologies to our many friends and posters outside the United States... it's time for another one of these! Culture war thread rules apply, and you are permitted to openly advocate for or against an issue or candidate on the ballot (if you clearly identify which ballot, and can do so without knocking down any strawmen along the way). "Small-scale" questions and answers are also permitted if you refrain from shitposting or being otherwise insulting to others here. Please keep the spirit of the law--this is a discussion forum!--carefully in mind.

If you're a U.S. citizen with voting rights, your polling place can reportedly be located here.

If you're still researching issues, Ballotpedia is usually reasonably helpful.

Any other reasonably neutral election resources you'd like me to add to this notification, I'm happy to add.

15
Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

The main thing you missed is that the swing states are correlated. If the polls miss extra Trump support, that will most likely materialize across demographically similar states. A 2-3 point polling error in Trump's favor (one standard deviation) wins him all the swing states.

Except there’s three groupings of swing states by demographic- older and whiter(the blue wall), blacker and more religious(Georgia and NC), and secular urban with lots of Hispanics(Arizona and Nevada). We wouldn’t expect these three groups to be correlated with each other much at all.

Polling errors are usually reported at two-sigma, but regardless this misses the real problem -- which is that they don't account for systemic error at all, which clearly exists in spades for Trump. (although not uniquely so -- this phenomenon seems to exist globally, to the point where you'd do better considering it to be baked in than not.