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Notes -
What would it take for you to believe them?
An independent audit would be nice. Also, just time, I guess - at some point it will start looking awfully silly if they keep doing their thing, and I keep insisting it's price dumping.
I doubt they'd do an independent audit just for the sake of proving their launch costs, and I don't expect they'd have another reason to do so.
How long do they have to keep this up before you stop insisting that it's dumping?
My model for how Elon's companies work is something like:
$thing
$thing
$new_thing
This worked well enough until now, but there are signs things are starting to break. I don't think they'll be able to repeat the same thing past Starship, so to answer your question - if Starship becomes their workhorse, or they'll bin the program, but it won't end the company*, I'll concede.
*) Modulo the shady stuff he can potentially do with a direct line to Trump, but I don't know how to explicitly factor that into my prediction.
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