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naraburns  nihil supernum  16d ago (text post)   26860 thread views

U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread

With apologies to our many friends and posters outside the United States... it's time for another one of these! Culture war thread rules apply, and you are permitted to openly advocate for or against an issue or candidate on the ballot (if you clearly identify which ballot, and can do so without knocking down any strawmen along the way). "Small-scale" questions and answers are also permitted if you refrain from shitposting or being otherwise insulting to others here. Please keep the spirit of the law--this is a discussion forum!--carefully in mind.

If you're a U.S. citizen with voting rights, your polling place can reportedly be located here.

If you're still researching issues, Ballotpedia is usually reasonably helpful.

Any other reasonably neutral election resources you'd like me to add to this notification, I'm happy to add.

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I mean actuarial life tables give trump a 1/100 chance of dying of natural causes in that time frame, those odds are a bit low if anything on actuarial life table grounds.

Wait you are saying there is a 1% chance he will die in the next 90 days? That seems unlikely

Yep.

Actuarial life tables give him a 1.45% chance to die of natural causes in the next 90 days, Trump is healthier than the average 78 year old but he is fat and could have heart disease for all I know so I wouldn't give him non-zero odds.

Also surely decent delta of 'significant health event which disqualifies him from the presidency without actually killing him'

I consider that he's way healthier than the average 78 year old a big reason to give him lower odds relative to his life table, the "significant health event" angle does happen too but I think it still only gets him to 1%

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