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naraburns  nihil supernum  16d ago (text post)   26860 thread views

U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread

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Trump has looked really tired and slow the last few months. He got his team over the line of winning the election, and he is already easily the most important Republican President since Reagan and maybe even before. Republicans have good reason to build a mile-tall statue of him tomorrow. But I doubt he has the energy remaining to actually do a lot as President. Is this about to be the age of Vance, Musk, Thiel, Ramaswamy, and so on to become the new actual center of the Republican party? If it is, I think it is probably going to be good for the Republicans, since those individuals are relatively young so they will be able to be energetic and electable for years to come. Trump seems so worn-out in his recent public appearances that I wouldn't be surprised if the Trump Presidency is actually effectively run by people like Vance and Musk instead of by Trump.

To be fair, it's possible that Trump's visible tiredness might be at least partly cured by a nice spell of actually being the President-Elect instead of campaigning. We'll see soon enough.

I thought he looked great. Imagine trying to do this campaign at any age.

Trump was at rallies and interviews every day, keeping a grueling schedule that would destroy people half his age. Harris hid from the press for nearly entire run while Trump was out there in public constantly. And, of course, 8 years ago Hillary had a physical breakdown during the home stretch.

If this is decline, I want some.

Well, as a prior, he actually didn't spend a whole lot of time actually governing near the end of his term either so that seems like a pretty reasonable baseline. I predicted downthread that the Cabinet will matter a LOT, but also that by the second half of his term he's going to be in some kind of physical decline and reach Biden levels of activity, though mostly physical (mental is too unpredictable to say).

It won't be the cabinet - it will be the EOP staff who actually run things. By default "Da Boss" in an administration with a lazy or distracted President is the WH Chief of Staff, but the crucial point is that someone controls access to the President's autopen. Famously, when Wilson had a stroke pre-25th amendment it was the First Lady.

Senate-confirmed cabinet secretaries have far less power than they are supposed to. In the British system, you tend to get "sofa government" with a high-energy PM and cabinet government with a low-energy PM. In the US system, the shift in power from departments to the EOP seems to be hard-coded now.

He had a grueling campaign (did more rallies compared to Harris). Dude is going to get some golf in and come back strong. But yes he is going to delegate.

Statistically speaking, he’s going to alternate between golfing and coming back strong. Man spent a lot of time at Mar-a-Lago last presidency.

Maybe he should invite Biden; could do him some good.

Dude is going to get some golf in

The hard work was getting elected. Now, he can delegate, make a few speeches and appearances, and spend most of the time at the links.

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