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naraburns  nihil supernum  16d ago (text post)   26877 thread views

U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread

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Separate from the presidency itself, it looks like a takeaway from the night is that the Republicans are taking back control of the Senate.

Assuming Trump wins, this would give the Republican party to make various federal appointments, including Supreme Court judges. Four of the current judges- Thomas, Alito, Sotomayor, and Roberts- will all be 70 or older next year, and all of theme are Obama, Bush, or H.W. Bush appointees. Meaning long-term implications for the balance of the court if any, especially Sotomayor, does, though alternatively entrenching a Republican justice in place if the oldest (Thomas) leaves.

Not clear at this point but maybe possible is a government trifect if Trump wins the presidency and the Republicans win the house. While potentially very powerful, the narrow Republican majorities will likely limit any organized effectiveness of this, bar some signature legislation push.

The Senate control looks to be, while not quite best-case, pretty darn good for the GOP, but it's not totally settled. This is actually a very, VERY big deal. We might be in the weird situation where the House margins are way more tight -- all eyes are going to be on Johnson for the next few years (assuming he even survives)

If Sotomayor doesn't make it to the next D President, she'll look as dumb as RBG not resigning under Obama.

I've noted before that this campaign has been awfully short on signature legislation. Is that strategic ambiguity? Is it a crippling fear of 🤓 emoji? Is it a tacit admission that our most salient problems are unusually vague? No idea. But I'm betting Supreme Court decisions will be the closest we get to a lasting legacy of the next President.

Kavanaugh has exceeded my expectations. Barrett has not. I don't even think I have an opinion on Gorsuch. Not thrilled about the prospect of one or two more Trump picks.

Trump didn't talk legislation because he didn't have to. Lingering economic goodwill from his 4 years was plenty for him to campaign on.

I think the reality is that Kamala's signature legislation would have been farther left than she's comfortable campaigning on.

Trump couldn't get border wall funding from Congress with R control of the House and Senate. I don't think his campaign expects a new Congress to be very supportive, so why bother with some bold legislative promise.

Legislative promises during the Presidential campaign always seemed kind of weird custom to me. It's literally not part of the job.

Is it a crippling fear of 🤓 emoji?

I'm old. What does this mean?

Fear of getting shoved in a locker for talking like a nerd.

https://em-content.zobj.net/source/apple/76/nerd-face_1f913.png

Here is an enlarged image of the nerd face emoji.

"Nerd", generally in long form.

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