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naraburns  nihil supernum  16d ago (text post)   26860 thread views

U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread

With apologies to our many friends and posters outside the United States... it's time for another one of these! Culture war thread rules apply, and you are permitted to openly advocate for or against an issue or candidate on the ballot (if you clearly identify which ballot, and can do so without knocking down any strawmen along the way). "Small-scale" questions and answers are also permitted if you refrain from shitposting or being otherwise insulting to others here. Please keep the spirit of the law--this is a discussion forum!--carefully in mind.

If you're a U.S. citizen with voting rights, your polling place can reportedly be located here.

If you're still researching issues, Ballotpedia is usually reasonably helpful.

Any other reasonably neutral election resources you'd like me to add to this notification, I'm happy to add.

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Trump at 70% chance of winning according to NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president.html#

I wish I had NYT needle values over time for 2016 and 2020.

Edit: 73% at 9PM central time.

80% at 9:20PM. Redditors dutifully explaining the "red mirage". Which might be real. But what a swing that would be.

88% at 9:41PM. I have a sin to confess. I excessively enjoy reading doomers on reddit. Blood is in the water right now. Any election megathread. Just saw a transwoman say she'll be killed soon. She won't of course. But that gives you a reading on their temperature level.

90% as of 11:10 central time.

93% at midnight. I gotta drive my kid to school then go to work tomorrow. No more updatesfrom me. But unless ballot harvestors find many many trucks of Harris ballots, I don't suppose it matters.

The needle gets stuck at ">95%" Trump as of 12:20 or so. I suppose we're done here.

election odds are weird. they can flip suddenly depending on a few states. It's the pitfall of having an extremely high variance and small sample size

Who would win:

Thousands of politically active data nerds, or

One rich crazy French dude?

I wish I had NYT needle values over time for 2016 and 2020.

I still remember watching the sudden and extreme flip in the NYT needle graph in 2016. It was really something to witness that happening live. The public meltdowns were nothing short of epic.

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