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Notes -
I bet on Trump after the assassination attempt. I don’t think anything since then has really changed his fundamentals. Harris is a significantly better candidate than Mecha-Biden, but I’m not sure how much that affects swing states. High confidence she wins the popular vote, though. Trump enthusiasts are wildly uncalibrated on this.
Democrats are unlikely to fight certification. I guess there’s a possibility of a Bush v. Gore cock-up leading to a serious legal challenge? Not the “throw shit at the wall” approach of the Kraken suits. Trump found those by making it a show of personal loyalty. Harris can’t and won’t command that kind of initiative. She’ll give a polite concession speech, and if she has to retract it like Gore, she will.
Trump supporters will pitch a fit if he loses. I was at the local gun store this weekend; it’s become fashionable to say things like “winning the vote is one thing, making it through the count is another.” A Democrat victory is presumed illegitimate. Trump will continue to pander to this sentiment, refusing to admit defeat. Again. That won’t actually lead to violence, mind you; Texas’ continued lean red will satisfy their honor.
In summary, there’s next to no chance of organized violence by anyone. It is possible that a Trump victory leads to riots in Democratic cities, but there would be zero chance (or expectation) of that changing outcomes. It’d be violence for frustration’s sake. Conversely, there’s near zero chance of random pro-Trump violence. Coordination on the level of 1/6 is more likely but still implausible. Nothing more complex will occur.
My overall experience? Pretty unpleasant. The discourse has been terrible and the vibes rancid. I am incredibly disappointed at how many intelligent, articulate users on this forum alone gave up all pretense of rigor.
I didn’t vote in 2012. Every Presidential election since then has been a referendum on Donald Fucking Trump. I’m ready for him to be out of the news. He doesn’t deserve to be rewarded.
I voted for Harris, and so should you.
Democrat militias carrying out organized violence doesn't count as organized violence? They get a complete pass on rioting and burning as much as they want? Why? Why the passive "leads to" instead of "the left will"?
Militias? Sure, that’d count. Those are awfully few and far between.
I don’t believe I’ve given anyone a pass on looting and/or burning.
And I use the passive because I don’t believe “the left” is an agent.
It is possible that, after a Trump victory, some morons at a Mostly Peaceful™ protest go burn down the local 7-11. I don’t consider that organized violence any more than I consider the Charlottesville debacle organized.
If we define "militia" as "organized to the point that the people committing the violence have defined, articulatable responsibilities in managing how the violence is implemented", that doesn't seem rare to me over the last decade. "you three hit people, these two "intervene" once you've gotten a few licks in, these two are on medic duty, you guys run interference with anyone trying to record the action..." I've been observing something like that pattern since 2015/2016 at the latest.
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They’ll show up to some Texas nationalist movement events and then stop, most likely.
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