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Prediction market are likely more accurate than polling. In addition to public information, prediction markets take into account variables that polls cannot readily account for, like electoral college lumpiness and turnout, as well as insider info. These tend to favor Trump, like in 2016. Or Bush in 2000. Both of whom won despite losing popular vote. So polling aggregators that give Kamala a 50% chance of winning or favorability, this translates into maybe only a 40% probability due to the aforementioned factors.
I think the whole 'Trump admires dictators' story by John Kelly was the surprise, and likely a dud. It also shows how Trump cannot stop appointing people who later turn on him. Likening someone to Hitler is so unoriginal or played out it has lost any of its potency to change minds. People acknowledge that it's just hyperbole.
I mean yes. Prediction markets avoid the two biggest problems of polling. One one side, it avoids the issue of shame and embarrassment entirely. If I’m in favor of something that is unpopular, I might not tell someone especially if I’m in a situation where other people might hear it. And second, they avoid falling for zealots. If the price for Kamala gets too high, people will sell Kamala and take the cash now before the election proves them wrong.
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Polling aggregators almost invariably create averages for state polling, too. The people giving probabilities, the modelers, also base their modeled outcomes off of state polls, so they're aware the Electoral College exists.
What's the actual record of prediction markets?
Pretty good.
Until recently, the biggest and most liquid prediction markets revolved around sports gambling. They are quite good at prediction, but skilled gamblers can do slightly better when the markets exhibit bias.
For example, if the Yankees are playing the Royals, maybe the Yankees will be favored by more than they should since there are more Yankees fans with more dollars than Royals fans.
Obviously, the more money that is involved, the better the market will be. So far, $2.4 billion has been wagered on Trump v. Harris on Polymarket.
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It's hard to say because until recently they were borderline illegal and illiquid
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