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PaperclipPerfector  1mo ago (text post)   28237 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of October 14, 2024

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Yeah, markets are a leading indicator.

If Silver only looks at the current polls without looking at momentum, his predictions are going to be slightly late and wrong. In the era of true betting markets, there is no longer much value to Silver's data aggregation methods. Even though he has one of the best models, the market will do a better job still.

Silver is also a biased Kamala supporter who tends to tweet about positive Kamala polls more than negative ones. But I trust him enough to say that he will ignore his biases and go where the data leads.

Nate Silver's analysis is upstream of the Polymarket prices, in the sense that everyone who trades serious amounts of money on Polymarket is reading Nate Silver and either agrees with him or has a good reason for disagreeing.

Both polls of superforecasters and prediction markets are ways of aggregating a range of information including the opinions of bona fide subject matter experts (which Nate Silver is), not a substitute for subject matter expertise.

I've seen some recent podcasts where Silver is a guest and he seems to think the blue tribe still underestimate Trump. If he is a Democrat, at least he's taken his blinkers off.

Silver is tentatively on my very short "Good Pundits" list in that he seems to honestly eschew bias in his prognostications and is completely willing to tell his own side when they are being utterly stupid.

His willingness to throw down bets on his own arguments is also promising.

Silver is also a biased Kamala supporter who tends to tweet about positive Kamala polls more than negative ones. But I trust him enough to say that he will ignore his biases and go where the data leads.

To his credit, he's open about his bias.

Yes. I see him as a fundamentally honest person who is more resistant to groupthink than the standard Cathedral member. His behavior during the pandemic reinforced this belief in me.

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