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naraburns  nihil supernum  2yr ago (text post)   4098 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for October 9, 2022

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What's going on between Democrats and Saudi Arabia? Are the Dems trying to warm relations with Iran? Where does that leave Israel?

What's going on between Democrats and Saudi Arabia?

Middle East foreign policy is one of the many topics where Republicans and Democrats favor different strategies. One of the central differences for the past several years has been the US approach to Iran--Republicans are opposed to the current Iranian regime, and want to contain it/promote a counterbalancing partnership of sorts (Abraham Accords--Trump), while Democrats would prefer to normalize relations with Iran (Iranian Nuclear deals--Obama and Biden).

Saudi Arabia fears the potential of Iranian aggression, as Iraq is no longer a meaningful buffer, so there is a certain tension between the agendas of the Saudis and the Democrats.

Are the Dems trying to warm relations with Iran?

Yes.

Where does that leave Israel?

Very much opposed to the Middle Eastern foreign policy of the Biden Administration, willing to make deals with any Arab state that will take their calls, and inclined to solve their own problems with Iran in the absence of US support.

Why are the Democrats normalizing relations with Iran? Do they think Iran getting nukes is a foregone conclusion? Or is Iran somehow a more reliable business partner? Or is a potential conflict with Iran too risky or costly to Democratic leadership? I guess, what changed, going back to Obama? Iran give more money to the Democrats? I remember the Netanyahu stunt in Congress. What triggered the animosity?

  1. The best way to liberalize a country isn't to ostracize it. Iran isn't going to improve its regime behavior if it is so isolated from Western finance, trade, and culture that it runs to Russia and China for friendship. Compare North Korea and Vietnam. Both fought bloody wars of independence against the USA, one was welcomed back into the liberal international order the other was not. Vietnam is a great place to vacation, and edging towards becoming a US ally, despite being run by a regime that did things to its people that make the mullahs look like pussycats. China might be taking an illiberal and adversarial turn, but man is it better than it was under Mao.

  2. There are significant costs associated with Iran's current posture vis a vis the West. They're a funding source for enemies of Israel and the United States. They're not going to stop doing that because we tell them we don't like it. They will likely eventually stop doing that if the USA/EU is their most important trading partner, and they face economic ruin if they fund Hezbollah. Democrats view it as in Israel (the country's) long term interest to have a netural-friendly Iran than thinking it can keep Iran permanently impoverished, isolated, and weak.

  3. Iran's Mullahs, Israel's Likudniks, and US Republicans would all prefer to fight each other than to cooperate; it is in their domestic political interests to see conflict. Peace breaking out would be an electoral disaster for all three.

For this set of questions, I can only speculate. I think that there's a general sense that Iranian "Great Satan" rhetoric is mostly posturing, and that responding with hostility is counterproductive. The Republicans, Israelis, and Saudis all take a very different view, and a much harder line.

Another factor is Israel. Traditionally, there have been some loose ties between Republicans and major foreign right-aligned parties (Tories in the UK; Likud in Israel) and similarly with the Democrats and major foreign left-aligned parties (Labour in the UK; [it's complicated] in Israel). But the trendline for the international Left has been more and more sharply hostile to Israel (see the BDS movement generally), and while I think this effect has been more muted in the US than other places, it still exists and is accelerating. Younger Democrats like AOC and her Squad have been sharply critical of Israel to a degree that older Democrats would find shocking.

Younger republicans have turned even more sharply against Israel, considering the baseline. Israel losing its golden boy status is a generational thing at this point and not really something tied to party specific trends. Although, to be fair, republicans have been moving away from likud and tories and towards harder nosed and less interventionist nationalist parties like Fidesz, which might affect the relationship to Israel, while democrats have been getting further in bed with centrist neoliberal parties that usually want the middle eastern Cold War to end.

Younger republicans have turned even more sharply against Israel, considering the baseline.

Evidence? Yes, the baseline support for Israel in the Republican party is very high, but in terms of policy, Trump was a move towards Israel, not away, and I believe he's been reasonably popular among "younger Republicans." BDS isn't a party plank for the Democrats yet, but it has become a non-fringe (and growing) position within the party.

democrats have been getting further in bed with centrist neoliberal parties that usually want the middle eastern Cold War to end.

Wanting isn't having; policies matter. In any case, Democrats have also been getting further in bed with the Iranian regime, and while you could fairly say that the mullahs also want the Middle Eastern Cold War to end, they consider a glowing crater where Tel Aviv used to be as a valid means to that end.

Well, chants of "death to America!" have historically had a certain domestic appeal, since FHM brought up Vietnam...

Ah, the "crazy kids on campus" from back in the day that now run the State Department....

Basically the US is mad at Saudi Arabia for conspiring with Russia to raise oil prices. Democrats want to punish them for it because, well, they’re the patty in power and thus the one that will suffer from it. Republicans are less enthusiastic about punishing Saudi because it distracts from grandstanding about domestic oil production. There’s also a bluecheck conspiracy theory tying trump into the Saudi decision to cut production but I don’t think anyone actually calling the shots believes it.

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