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PaperclipPerfector
1mo ago
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Transnational Thursday for September 26, 2024
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France is probably the clearest example of the old elites holding on to power via technicalities, but Germany is about two electoral cycles away from that being no longer tenable.
Since the whole traditional establishment essentially refuses to compete based on the largest political issues in Europe, the "alternative" or "populist" parties (not just AfD and RN, but BSW and LFI as well, with other examples elsewhere I could list if requested) are gaining steam on the edges. The way liberal democracy works, where traditional parties have a very highly integrated hold on media and social organizations, means that the electorate will likely choose all options in sequence before finally abandoning them all. We've already seen the last stage of this process play out in France, where remnants of old elites only got any reasonable percentage (though nowhere near majority) due to the deal with Mélenchon. While Germany is unlikely to have the same issue the very next election, where CDU is going to win based on voters nostalgia for Merkel years, there's no chance they can actually repair the problems it's facing.
Five years from now, the traditional parties, tracing their descent to West German political system, are going to be in the minority in Bundestag. Since the others will be both to the left and to the right of them, it will probably lead to some sort of a political crisis. And since Germany doesn't have the sort of strong presidency that France does, this crisis cannot be resolved in the same way.
Obviously something could happen in the meantime that will change the equation, but I just don't see it. The entirety of EU is enthusiastically running towards the edge of a cliff and I can't currently picture a way out...
Could you elaborate on how old elite hold power in France.
I've found France to be a remarkably well run nation, as far as European nations go. Public projects seem to get done on time and within budget. The non-white population actually feel French, in a way that I yet to see from any other country's minorities. There is significant amounts of industry, even though every one has impossibly good work life balance. They've protected themselves from global influence (locals use local-made products, the language and culture is strong) while still being able to project internationalism. They have the highest fertility in Europe, the society seems to deal with single parenthood quite well too. Looks like they're having their cake and eating it too.
I'll admit, I have a huge French friends group, who I love dearly. I also haven't been on the receiving end of their snooty-ness just yet. So, I'm biased.
Still, is there something unique that the French are doing right ? Or am I looking at it through rose-tinted glasses ?
Maybe I phrased it incorrectly, but I just meant the traditional party system. Since the end of occupation, France has been ran by either Gaullists or Socialists. The exact name of the party changes and sometimes there are breakups and mergers or whatever, but the French electoral system just kind of implies two major parties - one on centre-left and one on centre-right. Since it's not pure FPTP, other parties are not quite as screwed as they are in Britain or USA, but they're nonetheless strongly underrepresented.
Over the past two decades France has kind of gone through and electorally murdered every single imaginable combination of these traditional governing elites. UMP/LR (centre-right) were wiped out after Sarkozy, then PS (centre-left) got wiped out even worse under Hollande, with power falling to a defector from PS, Macron, making a centrist (really kind of just basic liberal) party, whose popularity was initially huge, but has progressivey lost ground.
My point is that there really aren't any tricks left up the sleeve of the traditional political forces. They all have a popularity akin to Hitler at a synagogue or something. Macron appointed a premier out of LR despite having no prospect whatsoever of it having parliamentary support. How all of this will keep workin until the next election is going to be fascinating. My guess is that not much will get done in general.
Vous semblez utiliser le clavier français, lol.
Les espaces avant le point d'interrogation vous ont trahi 😁
This was crazy insightful. Thanks dude !
Nope, just a dude with bad habits.
My French is limited to 'se Kis kis pas', 'se vu play', 'saba' and random groans.
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Yes, would love some other examples.
Also, how much of a fad is BSW?
At this point, it's Die Linke that is looking like a fad. BSW delivers what most old-school blue collars want: Economically left, socially right. Die Linke seems increasingly like an anachronism/wrong import from the US.
I wouldn't go as far as calling them "socially right" - it's not like they want to ban abortions or integrate religion into classrooms and the like. On standard social issues BSW essentially just has a standard 90s era social-democratic rhetoric - they're subordinate to economic issues, but people are meant to be free to do what they want without influence from reactionary organizations. The only reason this can possibly seem right-wing is because SPD and their ilk elsewhere in Western Europe / North America have gone way past that in the past decade and change. But BSW is still nowhere near US republicans or other genuinely conservative forces...
You might as well say that they're not right since they're not trying to restore the monarchy.
Also, as I've explained beforehand, the current state of german abortion law is right if not far-right by american conception, and pretty much already what many moderate american republicans desire.
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True Finns in Finland. The only reason the party ever got anywhere beyond a minor protest party is because all the other parties steadfastly refused to talk about immigration issues for two decades. As a result, they've gotten the second most seats in the last two elections and are currently in the government. This has also broken the old system of three traditional big parties and several smaller ones, with the Center Party being now just a shadow of its past size.
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Sure. PVV (Geert Wilders) in the Netherlands, VOX in Spain, Chega in Portugal, Reform in the UK etc. All of them are a response to the traditional parties essentially fusing on issues that are the subject of genuine controversy within the society, while the social and economic problems directly attributable to the policies by the traditional elites are growing.
I'm not German and am not really extremely plugged into their society, but I doubt it's much of a fad. SPD moving away from any sort of traditional social-democratic policies in favour of becoming milquetoast eco-liberals created an empty space on the left. Die Linke occupied that space for a while, but suffered from internal conflicts based on oppression hierarchies and other essentially social issues - BSW doesn't have that issue. You can agree or disagree with their stances, but it's undeniable that there is a space within a political system for them.
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