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Culture War Roundup for the week of September 16, 2024

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Voting is a Prisoner’s Dilemma, where if everyone cooperates (by voting) the politics are sane and geared after the medal voter. But one’s vote is so insignificant, it is more beneficial to not waste one’s time and defect by not voting. However, if too many people defect, the parties polarize and scare the median voters away from the pools, and polity goes bouncing from extreme to the other. Compulsory voting, as in Australia, solves the PD.

Median in terms of polarization? I like your comment but you didn't do a lot of work to actually describe the particular outcomes that would be better if the median voter had more say.

Do you expect higher quality decisions from the median voter? Or is this just about avoiding outcomes such as wokism/far right?

The Median Voter Theorem states that a majority rule electoral system will elect the candidate preferred by the median voter. However, if the middle drops out and doesn’t vote, the candidates can easily be more extreme than preferred by the broader populace.

This doesn't make sense to me. Why would "the middle drop out"?

I assume that most people who believe that voting is a waste of time also believe that the major candidates don't reflect their preferred policies. This makes these "drop outs" by definition very far from median.

Dropping out should only matter if the two extremes do them at different rates. If dropouts are uniformly distributed or distributed at the extremes, then there's no change in the stability of the results.

The middle drops when the parties rely on negative campaigning to energize their (more extreme) base at the expense of the middle, who are usually already annoyed by politics. Negative campaigning affects partisans differently than non-partisans. When the middle drops out, the party that is marginally more effective at turning out their base win.

I understood that part, but I still don't understand the broader implications. In particular, you seem to be implying that electing a candidate preferred by the median voter is better than the alternative, and I asked about the reason why. I can come up with some reasons, e.g. you don't get policies such as reparations or bloody deportations because those are preferred only by the extremes. But what about broader policy questions, or those unrelated to polarization or culture war?

I’m not asserting a link between turnout and quality, though there may be one. Indeed, Public Choice Theory suggests that for certain policies democracy and majority voting is no guarantee of quality.

Public Choice Theory suggests that for certain policies democracy and majority voting is no guarantee of quality

Is there a salient example for this?

Usually it’s with policies with concentrated benefits for a few and diffuse costs for the rest, like rent control, occupational licensing, NIMBY, the list goes on.