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Notes -
Austria-Hungary was not particularly an albatross around Germany’s neck except of its own making; absent the German blank check, it’s unlikely Austria would have full-on invaded Serbia as opposed to making demands which would have been considered reasonable upon review by the Russians. It was nowhere near as militaristic as Germany and while Franz Joseph was and old, out of touch emperor, he died in 1916 and was succeeded by Karl I, who likely would have given the needed reforms to keep the Slavs happy(Franz Ferdinand would have done the same thing).
Austria as a powder keg is foreseeable mostly in hindsight; a reasonable observer would have expected Franz Joseph’s successor to calm tensions.
Everyone goes on and on about the German blank cheque and completely ignores that the French did the exact same thing about a year before. They told Russia explicitly that they were prepared to back up Russia in a general war over a future Balkan crisis (one happening every few years at this point). What is that if not a blank cheque?
The French had decided they didn't particularly mind war, Germany hardly deserves more blame than France.
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I don’t disagree.
To be clear, I’m blaming reckless German policy, such as giving a blank check. There’s a quote from the German ambassador to A-H along the lines of “there is no way we actually benefit from this relationship.” But the other options all sucked, so Germany really doubled down on a weak hand. They’d have been much better off continuing Bismarck-style defensive politics like everyone else.
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