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PaperclipPerfector  11d ago (text post)   2522 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for September 8, 2024

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

Culture war topics are accepted, and proposals for a better intro post are appreciated.

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Single best book for this, imho, is Geopolitical Alpha by Marko Papic. The "constraints based" modeling approach, I think, gives a more consistent framework to forecasting than a lot of the more ad hoc reasoning you see elsewhere.

Then, the basics of compound probabilities and basic Bayesian reasoning. It's not about building a model that get's everything right, it's about building a model you can interrogate and update well as new information arises.

Geopolitical Alpha by Marko Papic

Thanks!

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