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PaperclipPerfector  3mo ago (text post)   2298 thread views

Friday Fun Thread for September 6, 2024

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1/2, because given that I've withdrawn a gold coin, the only possibilities are that I'm drawing from either 1g1s or 2g, so after I've drawn for the first time, the box I'm drawing from is either 1s or 1g. Equal chance between those. If we work through this from the very beginning, I have a 1/3 chance to pick either of the three boxes, but the p(1/3) case to draw from 2s is discarded according to the premise.

I see where my mistake is after reading the explanation: I've assigned separate cases to each box rather than each coin.

I made the same mistake.

Your mistake is that upon drawing a gold coin, you concluded you’re equally likely to have drawn from 1g1s and 2g. The latter is twice as likely as the former. Interesting that more people would have understood this if the numbers were 100s, 99s1g, and 100g.

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