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PaperclipPerfector  1mo ago (text post)   28308 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of September 2, 2024

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Given that at least in my home country of germany we're already at a TFR of 1.6 again

Is this number just for Germans or does it include immigrants too?

Afaik it include some immigrants that have a residential or citizen status, but not nearly all. The main origin countries are still poland (1.4), turkey (1.9) and russia (1.5), so the most recent waves from arab countries have not been (fully) incorporated as far as I can see. Also, the TFR of germans without migration background (which is not necessarily ethnic germans, though) has allegedly been increasing as well from the low of 1.4 to somewhere above 1.5.

Can you post a link to the data you're referencing? Overall TFR regardless of ethnic origin is down to 1.34 last year and the number of births so far projects out to a similar or lower figure for 2024. There was minimal upwards movement in the late 00s and early 10s, but this could plausibly be related to immigration, see the jump between 2014-2016. I don't see at all where you're getting the present upwards trend you've mentioned from.

Hmm, I was going by the numbers in the time frame 2016-2020 since I read an in-depth report which only included data up to 2020. I guess that means scratch the part about germany in particular, but the general argument primarily derived from The heritability of fertility makes world population stabilization unlikely in the foreseeable future, doesn't really depend on it.

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