This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
A few things to note: The tfr in Sweden as of 2023 was actually even worse and down to a new record low of 1.45. Furthermore, the tfr of foreign born women has historically been a good deal higher than native born women but that has now collapsed down to the same low level, suggesting to me that something is hitting all prospective parents hard, regardless of culture.
This extra low level of fertility is probably a temporary state of things that is both part of cyclical trends in Swedish fertility and the currently harsh economic environment with tough combination of very high housing prices (we were hitting a breaking point even before the pandemic), very high private borrowing to finance said high housing prices, interest rates increases that increased people's monthly payments for their housing by some +300%, an inability to sell your house/apartment to buy a new one (trapping prospective parents in too small housing) and high unemployment. If you're not already in the housing market (hopefully with locked in interest rates) and have a good job (unemployment is high and increasing) then you're fucked in the short/medium term. All this affects prospective parents the worst and they often can't wait too much because of delayed childbirth.
Going forward either fertility goes up as interest rates and unemployment goes down, like previous fertility dips associated with cost of living crises, or fertility stays low because our housing situation has become as fucked or worse than in places like Italy. There are arguments for both.
The 10th percentile Swede enjoys a style of life far more comfortable and luxurious than the 90th percentile Nigerian, but Nigeria's birth rate is way above replacement.
So I don't think that better housing or standards of living will increase fertility. Even if higher incomes temporarily lead to more children, expectations will increase even faster. At some point even extremely rich people feel like they don't have "enough". In fact, that's exactly where we are in Sweden today.
But perhaps this is a good insight into the priorities of the average person. When you have a world of amazing travel and luxury at your fingertips, consumption might seem like a plausible alternative to leaving a legacy. Really, the single young person does have it very good now.
It probably won't move the needle much, but punitive taxes for the single and childless seem in order, with corresponding rewards for parents. Free airplane tickets for children and double prices for those traveling without?
You are thinking about this the wrong way. The relevant variable is not how much money you have but how much does a child cost. Nigerian children are cheap but a Swedish couple doesn't want to raise their child like the average nigerian does (and they can not because it is illegal).
And that’s what Sweden needs to fix. The idea that the problem can only be fixed with more money is ludicrous. Expectations can always rise faster than material wealth.
More options
Context Copy link
I mean, part of "raising their child like an average Nigerian" is a 200x higher infant mortality rate, so yeah, even putting aside differences in culture or economic status, that's a pretty giant one. If Nigeria had Swedish maternal mortality rates, you'd probably get big drops in TFR as children became a more precious thing.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
Perhaps I wasn't clear, it's not only the absolute rate that has collapsed but the relative rate as well. The fertility differential between natives and the foreign born has been remarkably stable over time, until now. The fob immigrants are now having as few children per woman as native swedes. If people from other countries have as different standards as you claim then the differential should have increased, not declined.
This isn't just some longer trend of fertility decline, something has happened, starting in 2019 or 2015, depending on how you look at things.
On this at least we agree, but if it isn't combined with reform of the housing market it risks being overly punitive. On the other hand if the punitive taxation comes first then pressure for land and planning reform (or some other "solution") would likely sharply increase as well.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link