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PaperclipPerfector  2mo ago (text post)   28507 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of September 2, 2024

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I have little to do with East Germany, so I have no idea what the consequences for them will be. Possibly anti-AFD coalitian governments that cannot actually govern?

For Germany as a whole, I suppose this will put a small damper on rampant leftism while destigmatizing right-wing views to a small extent. It will drag the center parties somewhat to the right, or at least away from the left. There's no telling what the next federal election will bring, though my money is on yet another barely-functional anti-AFD coalition. Or maybe I just have status quo bias.

Ultimately I am happy about this. Germany needs to get away from its infinitely damaging leftist culture warriors, and this is a step in the right direction, no matter what follows.

As long as the cordon sanitaire around the AfD survives, mightn’t results like this just further strengthen the position of leftist culture warriors? If the CDU won’t form a government with the AfD, they’ll have to keep making more and more concessions to the Left, the Greens, the SPD, and now the BSW. My impression of the CDU is that they’re so weak, they’ll concede practically anything if it allows them to form a government that excludes the AfD. If I’m right about that, it seems like the only way for further AfD victories to mean anything is for the AfD to get an actual majority, which is virtually impossible in Germany’s parliamentary system. (Though the AfD can definitely influence some things if they control over a third of the seats, as is now the case in Thuringia.) Is there something I’m missing?

Though the AfD can definitely influence some things if they control over a third of the seats, as is now the case in Thuringia.

Didn't they lose one of the seats to a recount?

That was in Saxony, where they went from 41 seats out of 120 to just 40. They have 32 out of 88 seats in Thuringia.

Sure, they can go further left to align themselves more with their prospective coalition partners, but:

  1. That doesn't seem to be what the current CDU leadership intends to do. Granted, they're in opposition so all we have to go on is hot air, but at the very least right now they seem to flirt with various right-wing positions.
  2. If they swing left again, they'll probably bleed more voters and feed the AfD.
  3. I'm fairly confident that they are conscious of 2. and thus do 1.
  4. There is no niche to their left that they can occupy.

Now, when all's said and done I have no faith in the CDU and they will probably just say whatever they think gets them back into power, and once there will run a business as usual government. They do not, as far as I can tell, have any real stomach for culture warring over contentious issues. But at least strategically I don't see them going further left as a problem for the AfD.

My impression of the CDU is that they’re so weak, they’ll concede practically anything if it allows them to form a government that excludes the AfD

The old quip about the Holy Roman Empire is even more true of the CDU: neither Christian, nor democratic, nor a union

I am sorry, but I don't see it.

The German word 'Union' simply means 'merger', no relation to trade unions. I guess that it refers to the fact that both Catholics (which had their own party in Weimar) and Protestants are welcome.

I also think that the CDU is in fact democratic. There were parties which were genuinely anti-democratic, such as the KPD (which wanted the dictatorship of the proletariat), monarchists or the NSDAP. The CDU/CSU wants none of that. If by some miracle, the SPD had won an absolute majority in Bavaria in the 1970s, they would have peacefully transferred power to them without pulling a Trump.

Their Christianity is indeed debatable. But then again, you can't look into the hearts of people. Perhaps Merz has deeply held Christian beliefs, or perhaps his most cherished belief is that he should be chancellor and he recognizes that he won't get there leading the FDP. Perhaps Christianity (as in WWJD) played a role in Merkel's decision to let the refugees in in 2015.

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