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PaperclipPerfector  3mo ago (text post)   29582 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of August 26, 2024

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What in the world?

Trump has never been good at debating. At best he's been OK, as in he's been good enough to not crumple to someone like Jeb Bush's attacks back in 2016, but he's never really gained much from debates, he's just treaded water.

Then in 2020 he gave one of the worst debate performances in presidential history.

And he flubbed strategically in 2024 by letting Biden debate way early, when there was still time for the Dems to change horses. Trump is in a much weaker position because of that debate than where he was before it.

Let’s see:

  1. He ended Jeb Bush’s political career in a debate.

  2. He had one of the best lines in debate history “because you’d be in jail” which just might have pushed him over the top in 2016.

  3. He ended Biden’s political career in a debate.

He did poorly in 2020.

Not sure id say he is a top debater but he surely isn’t bad.

  1. I don't recall any great debate flub by Jeb, but 2016 was a long time ago so maybe I'm forgetting something?
  2. The "because you'd be in jail" didn't help him, and if anything it temporarily cost him support with moderates. Trump went from -4.6 against Clinton to -7.1 in the weeks following that.
  3. Biden self-destructed. Trump didn't do anything to help it along other than a weak "I don't think he knows what he's talking about" and be minimally competent enough to not also get dinged. A good debater could have accelerated it (like what Christie did to Rubio in 2016).

he's never really gained much from debates, he's just treaded water.

This is a pretty bizarre standard, because generally debates don't matter much at all. Who remembers the 2008 or 2012 debates? As I recall Romney was generally considered to win a few debates against Obama, but it didn't really matter and nobody cared. Trump, by contrast, used the 2015 debates to win the primary, the 2nd debate with Hillary to revive his campaign after the Billy Bush tapes, and now his debate with Biden to force an unprecedented mid-election switch. Declaring that Trump is a bad debater is one of those stylistic preferences, where people who already don't like Trump conclude he isn't actually good at anything.

Who remembers the 2008 or 2012 debates?

I remember Obama's "slam dunk" on Romney, in which he said the following.

Gov. Romney, I'm glad that you recognize that al-Qaida is a threat, because a few months ago when you were asked what's the biggest geopolitical threat facing America, you said Russia, not al-Qaida. You said Russia ... the 1980s, they're now calling to ask for their foreign policy back because, you know, the Cold War's been over for 20 years

It's somewhat ironic, in retrospect.

He did great in the 2016 republican debates. Consistenty entertaining and stole the spotlight, as you'd expect from someone who spent so long working in reality TV. He struggles more with the 1v1 debate format, i think. Maybe because that gives both people too much airtime and the whole thing is just boring.

His advantage in the 2016 debates stemmed from his approach being so unconventional that the audience found it exhilarating, and the other participants were so flummoxed by anyone not being appalled by it that they didn't know how to effectively respond. By 2020 his schtick had worn thin, and Biden knew what he was up against.

Honestly that says more about the extraordinary weakness of the 2016 Republican field than it does about Trump's strength.

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