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I strongly suspect this can't last through the election. Kamala Harris can't actually hide for 3 months without facing: debates, domestic and global affairs, or some level of unscripted campaigning. Putin conquers Kiev -- what does Kamala Harris say? An astronaut dies -- can she really afford to say nothing while Trump goes for the photo op? Everything adds up, not in her favor, and the less she appears in public the more each moment defines who she is.
A year ago Kamala was disliked because she's a bad politician and is extraordinarily dumb. How long can they paper that over?
Mostly depends if R's have any tricks up their sleeves. I don't think she will be in a position to fuck up bad enough with regards to governance or policy while campaigning. Biden can take heat for any Whitehouse failures on his way out. Even if he doesn't want to. She can pick and choose what to take credit for. She can do her one debate, be described as passing, and the worst will be over for her.
If she gets into office, then she likely gets a free ride for a year. Beyond that, there's always a possibility of a mishandled crisis, interests collide, or something significant enough occurs that cause the media to begin to Ask Questions. How that goes down depends on the topic and interests involved. We might get the We Always Knew, But Had to Defeat Trump retrospectives. Either way, her favorability will trend downwards, as they all do, then a renewed, reinvigorated fight for Democracy miraculously emerges just in time for the 2028 election.
If she is as incompetent and inept as detractors suggest, then the scale of this trajectory can compressed or derailed. She could be at risk of a primary in '28 or, ironically, pressured to step down quietly as her predecessor was. Despite what the media looks like now, Kamala doesn't have the history, connections, or gravitas that Joe The Tenured Statesman has. Those roots grease wheels and papers over a lot of cracks; enough grease and paper to cover burgeoning senility. Alternatively, with this information you could make the argument that the media is just that complicit or effective.
Obama mimicry -- Joy instead of Hope/Change -- is heavily reliant on media complicity and voter willingness to believe. I don't think Kamala is capturing Full Obama-type energy. People are mostly relieved to be given a reason to vote for her and vote against Trump. Obama was capable of contributing to his own narrative in material ways. He could give a speech, he could play the voice of the moderate, he could pander to and rally his base against their ideological enemies. He knew enough to know when and where to choose to do these things.
For the varnish to wear off before the election-- that would require a hell of a fuck up, or a black swan event like Trump dying where media has lesser (if still plenty) reasons to remain complicit in narrative construction.
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I've alluded to this before.
Trump literally knocked out his opponent in the first debate. There's a chance he goes 2-0, and the second victory (September 10th) ends with the defeat of an entire party, not just a candidate.
But, then, he'll keep talking his way out of votes. This thing comes down to the wire no matter how you slice it. Thanks, Baby Boomers.
Trump wins votes by talking. His entire political career had been made on rallies and tweet.
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It’s basically the same play they ran with Biden. Keep appearances minimal and roll the dice that media can plausibly not talk about how he’s losing his marbles until after the election.
At some point they figured that’s not going to work and so engineered the debate to expose him, and even then it nearly didn’t work to get a new candidate.
We’ve got a couple of months for Kamala to not implode. She’s apparently a poor manager with high turnover, has plentiful examples of incompetent extemporaneous speaking, and has already floated policy ideas unpopular enough that they’re walking them back.
There’s plenty of opportunity there.
We also don’t know what the Republicans might be holding back. Last time there was a coordinated attempt to deny them their October surprise, but I don’t know that the 51 intelligence officials trick will work a second time.
I'm sure that this time it will be even worse. Something will escalate. Maybe they'll try throwing Trump in jail after all, or they'll declare a state of emergency before the election.
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Can't she? Biden hid for 6 months before the election, and then 3.5 years after the election. He apparently hadn't met with congress for 2 years. It's possible if there had been no debates, he would have continued to hide right through November.
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Putin's unlikely to conquer Kiev by November. If an astronaut dies she can give a canned speech. There's only two full months left and it seems most people just want a not-obviously-unacceptable Democrat. If Harris can manage to stay in the basement, she can likely pull that off.
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