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Culture War Roundup for the week of August 19, 2024

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The Soviet union fell without guns. The people who built Detroit, south side Chicago and Atlanta largely were forced to leave their cities and were replaced without any resistance. The US has never really had any insurgency or militia fighting the government. Northern Ireland had the IRA, the Spanish have independence groups, Italy has had groups fighting the state, Germany had the Baader–Meinhof Gang. The US has had indviduals go bananas and a group of Saudis conduct a major attack but no organized insurgency.

The significance of your observation depends on your causal model. Usually the fall into tyranny is treated as exogenous: it is just as likely when the civilians have guns as when they are disarmed. Eventually it happens, and if the civilians have guns we get to see if they can shoot their way back to freedom.

I prefer to add two upstream stages. Before you can have a coup or a tyrant, you need that kind of person in politics. Once in politics they scheme and calculate. Perhaps the civilians have been disarmed by a well meaning predecessor. Now the would be tyrant's calculation is whether the police and the army will kill on his behalf. Perhaps the civilians have guns. How the calculation is whether the police and the army will take incoming fire. Some will die. Dying is a bigger ask than killing, and I anticipate the would be tyrant biding his time, waiting for a better opportunity that never comes.

But upstream of that is the question: does the would be tyrant even go into politics? Some-one who grows up in a disarmed country may see his fellow country men as sheep to be sheared and enters politics hoping to transcend electoral politics and become Lord Protector. Some-one else, growing up where civilians have guns sees less chance of grabbing ultimate power and probably ends up following a different path through life. Perhaps he aims to become very rich, by up newspapers, and then to half-rule from the shadows, using the media to shape public opinion, sometimes winning, sometimes losing, but never at risk of being shot.

Perhaps the lack of organized insurgency shows that the second amendment is pointless because the guns never get used. I think that the lack of organized insurgency shows that the second amendment works better than expected, shaping who goes into politics. The guns are never used because those with ambitions to be tyrants find others paths through life.

Germany had the Baader–Meinhof Gang.

In the grand scheme of things, the RAF was utterly insignificant. They made a lot of headlines with their murders, but they were no closer to taking over the German government than Bin Laden was to establish a caliphate in the US.

The US has never really had any insurgency or militia fighting the government.

I mean this is objectively not true if you look at the whole of its history, but lets just look at post-1900.

On the small scale:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bundy_standoff

That armed resistance WON their conflict.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Blair_Mountain

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Athens_(1946)

So did that one.

The US has never really had any insurgency or militia fighting the government.

So the KKK and other adjacent Reconstruction-era militias don't count?