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Culture War Roundup for the week of August 12, 2024

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After Australia's reaction to covid, i would not put it behind British state control.

That's not the part that makes Australia leaps and bounds ahead of Britain, indeed. Britain seems to be having a bad time of the culture war recently, what with the rioting, and I hear there are also economic issues.

The usa is not "close to civil war" That is mostly a larp for the very far right and left to fantasize about in very online spaces. It has about as much chance as "The Purge" or "Running man" at becoming reality.

It would take a big spark, but there are a few plausible ones. A hard hit on the debt ceiling (literally) defunding the police for an extended period. Obvious election fixing. Maybe court-packing. At least one other. None of these things are assured, by any means, but none of them are that unlikely either.

I also ask, were you born in Australia or was it a choice to move there?

Born here. Think I'm fourth-generation.

You position is that if we hit the debt ceiling, defund the police (which isn't actually a thing) or pack the court the usa will be in civil war? The population isn't even divided up geographically in a way that woild even make it possible, very very worst case it would be like the "troubles" in NI. Most people are way too lazy for that kind of thing.

A hard hit on the debt ceiling (literally) defunding the police for an extended period.

How would hitting the federal debt ceiling defund the police which is mostly funded from state and local sources?

A good point, and makes me less worried. Although, with that said, the FBI is IIRC the main org dealing with domestic terrorism and rebellion.

I feel like you think aus is better because you live there. Have you done a lot of travel?

Only been to Singapore (and NZ, but I was a baby so I don't remember).

Before I swung right I would have said NZ was better and it's still close; the USA was likely better in the 90s/00s before the culture war went white-hot and before you let mass looting/lawlessness happen in a bunch of your cities.

There isnt mass lawlessness unless you only watch fox news. Even "shitholes" like sf are safe and clean if you stay off one bad street.

We saw the largest single-year increase in violent crime ever recorded immediately following the Floyd riots. The violent crime rate has since declined somewhat, but is still massively elevated over the pre-Floyd baseline. There's good evidence that the elevated crime rate extends to other categories as well, given the effects on major business chains. That seems like good evidence for "mass lawlessness" from vectors other than Fox News.

I don't feel particularly unsafe. Do you?

It appears that you've moved from statements of fact to statements of emotion. Would that be fair description?

To answer your question, yes, I feel significantly less safe than I did in 2020, and I felt less safe then than I did in 2014 when all this mess kicked off. I think this feeling is the result of an accurate assessment of the evidence available, given the events of the last decade. Things are a lot worse now than they were before, and there are a lot of solid reasons to expect the trend to continue.

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