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Culture War Roundup for the week of August 12, 2024

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You seem to be assuming that the most straightforward avenue "to win the war" is also the most viable for Ukraine to take. It reads as "just break the Russians' offensive head-on, bro", but in more words.

My impression is that they, in fact, believe that with the resources available they can't just break the Russians' offensive head-on, or otherwise accomplish straightforward victories that would be legible to you as "trying to win the war", so they're going for headline victories. Which aren't nothing.

Then what, exactly, is all of this western aid paying for?

What is the length of commitment necessary from the West for Ukraine to win the war?

I think the average American is happy to support Ukraine, less happy, if it proves to be a Afghanistan-level commitment. Open-ended conflicts with no clear objective is the kind of foreign entanglement I do not like.

Presumably to bleed Russia of manpower and materiel. Ukraine definitely isn't winning the war right now, but Russia's eventual victory (barring some sort of black swan event like an internal coup or civil war etc.) will definitely be a Phyrric one. Russia will likely become a client state of the Chinese (see China already bending Russia over on petroleum deals), the embarrassing performance of a lot of their systems (like the S-400) will cause tons of nation states to turn to other suppliers for arms. The widespread incompetence seen in the Russian military is unlikely to lead to significant or lasting reforms.

In the end Russia will likely secure a peace deal that gives them Crimea officially (along with a land bridge connecting it, basically the territory that Russia currently controls). But at tremendous cost to their capabilities and their place in the world order.

For me any ideas I had of Russia being able to go head to head against NATO were obviously wrong after the failed Kiev offensive at the start of the invasion. Russia clearly can't into logistics when they don't have uncontested railways within 50 km of where they're operating. Logistics is what wins wars, and has ever since the advent of modern weapons/air power/etc. have made armies unable to support themselves solely on raping and pillaging the countryside. See America's barge dedicated to making ice cream for troops in the Pacific vs. Japan not even having enough fuel for their remaining fleet by the end of WW2 (and the US also had several more ice cream barges serving the European theater).