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Culture War Roundup for the week of August 12, 2024

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There is plenty of optimism driven momentum surrounding Harris coming from the anti-Trump forces, enough for her to coast along with minimal foot in mouth incidences. Trump by contrast seems intent on being the driver of the conversation, and while I agree with others on this board that much of the media fact-checking establishment is grasping at straws to inflate the severity of the stupid shit he says, it is also true that he says very little that is cogent or meaningful. He hasn't got a good insult on the level of Sleepy Joe or Crooked Hilary for Harris, and JD Vance comment on childless cat ladies is the only thing percolating in my media environment Harris is surprisingly teflon at the moment, and the Don hasn't found a soundbite to stick.

it is also true that he says very little that is cogent or meaningful.

Sorry, this is what I meant by "Play The Hits." I agree with you.

An under reported fact about Trump is that he is, now, and incredibly known quantity. He's close to stale. All of his brash energy that sustained him in 2016 is now close to tedious. He's like a shock jock radio host who keeps making the same "that's what she said" zinger as he fades into obscurity.

In the Biden debate, we saw Biden fall apart on his own. There was a single opportunistic move by Trump; when Biden said "We finally beat Medicare" Trump responded along the lines "I don't know what he's talking about and I don't think he does either" (paraphrasing). If Trump had seized on Joe not being cogent in that Debate, he could've ended the Biden campaign the next day. Similarly, if, after the assassination, he had come out and stayed on a message of "I still want to drain the swamp - but now is a time for unity and peace" I think he puts himself up 10+ points and the Kamala switch really turns into a "lost with grace" campaign while the Democrats try to maybe win back the House or something.

The larger point is that Trump's often lauded political "instincts" haven't grown or improved in 8 years. He knows how to bully, he knows how to be funny, he knows how to work an in person crowd. Beyond that, he's acquire no new skills.

I have a post elsewhere that the race is already 93-95% decided. The campaigns are fighting over about 300,000 votes in six swing states (with the midwest being highly autocorrelated). As much as Trump has been fucking the dog recently, I still don't see Kamala winning one or several of MI/PA/WI if she doesn't go there and make her case. In fact, this is exactly what doomed Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Trump is a showman who won against a bureaucrat in 2016 and lost against a way-past-his-prime politician. Harris has inherited a political machine and hasn't said anything as stupid as 'deplorable' or 'pokemon go to the polls' which actively made Hilary look stupid. Trump only has Laughin Harris, which is so far inferior to Cacklin Kamala that his failure to deploy that just shows his current impotence. Harris definitely needs to give SOMETHING to the blue wall, but even there the enthusiasm for Trump has waned in general compared to 2016 and even 2020. Trump just doesn't have the sauce right now, and without Biden as a punching bag Trump just seems gassed out.