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Notes -
Early 2024 was one of the worst periods for Ukraine of the war so far (shell hunger, no recent wins, etc). For both domestic and international backers a high profile success provides hope and assurance that they are still in the fight. It's hard to understate the importance of troop morale. In the international context, backers are more likely to continue to provide support if Ukraine demonstrates that they can achieve success on the battlefield.
The message to ordinary Russians, particularly those in Kursk and adjacent, is that the war can come for them too. It also makes Putin and co. look less secure and in control. It's probably not going to break the camel's back, but if you're in the business of camel-back breaking you take the straws you can get.
In terms of military effect: Russia has been on the offensive for a while now, and there's reason to believe it will culminate in the near future. By conducting the incursion they create a dilemma: stay on the offensive even longer to try and retake the territory, or take the operational pause as planned and give Ukraine the opportunity to dig in. Neither option is particularly appealing.
It also takes uti possetidis off the table....
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