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Culture War Roundup for the week of July 29, 2024

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I think you misunderstand my argument. Trump's unique personal bond with his voterbase would probably enable him to hold onto the vast majority of them, a larger than normal portion of them, regardless of his statements. While his pivot would cause Democrats to hurt themselves in their confusion. When Trump has gotten to the left of the Dems, the Dems get spooked and either go right and alienate their own voters (who mostly don't trust Democratic politicians anyway), or they go even farther left and alienate everyone else.

So Trump comes out for a ceasefire. Harris is in a Dilemma; if she tries to go further left and withdraw all support for Israel she alienates most normal Americans, if she tries to swing zionist and talk about our steadfast support for Israel she alienates a lot of voters she needs in November. Where does this cash out for votes?

I don't think Trump would follow through on it in office, or that it reflects his personal views. I think it would be a political masterstroke, forcing Harris onto the back foot, and likely tying her to any bad thing Israel does between now and November.

Whereas if Dems pivoted against Immigration, they would alienate a lot of their own voters, who don't trust them on immigration, and they wouldn't really win over any Republican voters, who don't trust them on immigration. What makes Trump unique is his charismatic personal bond with a lot of voters, who think he will do the right thing even when he has specifically said he won't.

I think you mis-estimate the views of the silent majority here. Plenty of people find Trump distasteful but not evil.

Siding with massacring terrorists who started a war is wrong, no matter how many of their own children they throw in front of their armories to get blown up. "Ceasefire Now" is telling Israel to accept getting wiped off the map for the crime of being a successful western country when marxists hate them.