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I think Palestinians have absolutely 0 plausible paths to victory through violence. Right it's looking like Ukraine won't regain its lost territory, but I wouldn't put the odds at 0. Plus Russia's been continuously slowly expansionist for the past two decades- if Ukraine just gave up no, I wouldn't be surprised if Russia tried to take it over again in twenty years.
"Incite hot jihad between everyone else in the ME and Israel" seems more plausible than "push Russia back to 2013 borders" to me. (not that either is very plausible, but there's clearly a non-zero chance that Israel could be overwhelmed in the unlikely event of a grand alliance against them.)
Hot jihad against Israel has been tried 3 times previously. It failed disastrously each time, Israel had decisive victories and ended with more land than they started with. Israel's international stance and its military is much stronger today than the past as well.
I think pushing Russia back to 2013 is unlikely, but back to 2015 is not impossible. Especially since Russia's having difficulties, they're going deep into debt and relying heavily on China giving them loans and buying oil.
Neither is it literally impossible that the Arabs get their shit together this time -- just that there's not much evidence that they will, and plenty that seems to point in the other direction. Much like the situation in Ukraine.
Their only >1% path that I can see is somehow convincing NATO to start WW3 -- and since Russia has a lot more nukes than Israel, and is fighting in a place that does not include their own holiest sites, the chances disproportionately skewed towards the 'ruling over radioactive rubble' side of things for them than the Palestinians.
I think it's completely possible the West keeps funding Ukraine, maybe pays for some private military companies to help it too to make up for the manpower shortage. Russia goes deeper into debt, eventually their economy collapses, Ukraine wins by default. I don't know what exact number I'd put on that, but if the West doesn't give up on Ukraine, I'd maybe give it a 20% chance?
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Maybe about the same as pushing Russia back to post-Crimean Annexation borders. Maybe less, considering I've seen no indication at all Egypt or Jordan is up for another round.
But inciting hot jihad between everyone else in the ME and Israel doesn't mean the Palestinians win; it doesn't even mean the Israelis lose.
Yeah I'm not saying it's a good plan (or that Hamas even has a plan) -- but it's a plausible path. Maybe the only one.
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