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PaperclipPerfector  4mo ago (text post)   37983 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of July 8, 2024

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The real political effect of assassinations is so subject to context and specifics that it's hard to say. Culture is also relevant - in Japan, assassination of politicians rarely results in a martyr effect - if anything, public opinion often ends up turning in favour of the cause of the assassin.

(I suspect that if anything, the supposed martyrdom effect is just a cultural strategy to discourage assassination. When politicians rally behind an assassination victim, they're contributing to a political norm that protects their own behinds.)

the supposed martyrdom effect is just a cultural strategy to discourage assassination. When politicians rally behind an assassination victim, they're contributing to a political norm that protects their own behinds.

Agreed. It's a fairly good norm to have. Not just for the politicians avoiding the guillotine.

At some level the average American understands, or believes, that assassinations on important people threaten their comfortable way of life. In addition to that, Americans have a common association with assassinations in history. Lincoln, JFK, the average American is taught about these figures and recalls them in the context of their assassinations. On top of the taboo Americans see assassinations as Big Historical Tragedy. That elicits sympathy and dredges up deep associations found within their educational programming.

I don't think the effect is such that a bunch of D primary voters will swing to Trump. Among undecideds or swing voters, however, if this event is still at the forefront of voter consciousness come November it will have an effect. As an anecdote, a very blue couple I was with yesterday shared the news. This couple had canvassed for Biden in 2020 as I recall. They are less politically engaged this go around, but still very blue. They believed it meant the election was lost. That was one of their first reactions.

Perhaps if Biden was in a stronger position they would have reacted differently. A lot can happen, as we've seen, but this felt like a nail in the coffin to them. This is a barb in the side of avid partisans and accelerationists. Of the, actual real people, group I was with there was one "wouldn't have been so bad if he missed" flippant comment. Which Blue Couple did not appreciate and shamed him for, despite all the the vitriol Blue Wife has directed towards the former president over the years.

There are people who want Trump to win but don't want to vote for him because he's a bad person. I think it's pretty common amongst conservative blue tribers. I count myself in this group.

Watching the footage from yesterday made me like Trump a lot more. Say what you will about the guy, he showed enormous courage.

Yesterday will flip some votes at the margin which will matter in a close race.

This absolutely. Assassination attempts cut through media noise and penetrate straight to the most difficult to reach but also critical vote, the (actually real) undecided and swing voters, who often don't tune in until late and put heavy emphasis on "vibes". So this event is double critical hit, in that swing voters actually heard something so soon, and also the vibes were heavily good for Trump.

Of the, actual real people, group I was with there was one "wouldn't have been so bad if he missed" flippant comment. Which Blue Couple did not appreciate and shamed him for, despite all the the vitriol Blue Wife has directed towards the former president over the years.

I think at least part of that depends on the social groups you're running within. I got this (cw: ffxiv spoilers) linked in my social groups, followed by someone I gave computer build advice not twelve hours before joking about 'the hero we didn't know we needed'.

It's not universal among the left, but neither is it just the Kathy Griffins and Keith Olbermanns, either.

A matyr needs to have his base rally in a time of disunity. The japanese provide the ur-counterexample, where Japanese Socialist Party Chairman Inejiro Asanuma was assassinated and the party lost its forward momentum, falling into infighting before disintegrating completely. Matyrs work to hyperenergize a passive but unified base, they don't work for converting or unifying.

Given that Trumps base is MAGA and anyone who thinks Dems are going too far, I see this as an energizing moment. Fun fun fun.

It also helps that Trump lived. There won’t be disunity.

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