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At this stage Trump could literally set up an alternative government in exile in Moscow and the majority's of states would support him.
Except, how's he supposed to get from a jail cell to Moscow
Support him how? Beyond symbolic "moral support" and "not my president" rhetoric, I mean.
talking out my ass here:
trump posts bail, flees or escapes usa with the help of literally anyone, declares he is true president in exile just like guaido. alternative suite of electors submits trump as legit winner.
specific mechanics break down from this point on regarding how to actually govern, but theres enough hilarity to sustain bullshit for a decade from this point
Bail is for pre-trial custody. He's already been convicted of multiple felonies, he just hasn't been sentenced yet. Once the judge gives him jail time, there's no "posting bail" to get out of it.
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If he was ordered to be arrested by federal marshals while in Texas I can see Abbott going ‘fuck it’ and having relatively loyal rangers / cops / nat guard surround him so that federal agents can’t reach him.
At that point Biden would have to decide whether to send in the troops to pacify Texas and that seems unlikely, it would probably just lead to a standoff until the election.
Major internal operations require politically reliable troops, and it seems unlikely that the US military can put together a politically reliable field army in the months before the election. It's not a thing that the US military has experience in and it doesn't take that many to own-goal the mission.
Now a very long-term standoff between the state of Texas and the federal government probably goes badly for Texas(and not great for the federal government either), but a major state rebelling probably has at least a year of 'we do what we want' before having to face the music.
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