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PaperclipPerfector  5d ago (text post)   23444 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of July 1, 2024

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I take the exact opposite message from it: after the debate a strong party would not be taking anything on Biden's word. A strong party wouldn't be waiting for some hail Mary interview or strategy change.

A strong party would simply defenestrate him because it's quite clear what the problem is. It has been clear in polling for months now - the public has made it clear this is a huge issue for them. It's been clear in the reporting since the debate. This is not the "break glass" moment. This is past that.

What is the point of elites if they can't just make the decision?

All of this seems like a weak party moving from the denial to the bargaining stage. Now it's clear they've gone too far and it's just too gosh-darned hard to remove Biden (especially with Kamala on maneuvers, making it clear they're not jumping her) they're listening and hoping something happens, someone else does it, when they should be telling Biden.

Of course, they don't have the time to get to acceptance. So Biden likely runs out the clock.

The problem they have is enough of them have spoken out that Biden seems like a dead man walking. Let’s say Biden hangs on — the Fourth of July almost certainly helps stem the story a bit.

Now what? Now the republicans get to run ads showing many democrats calling the president mentally incompetent.

Trump had been strangely silent. A video just leaked with him talking some shit re Biden. I think Trump is playing 3D chess here. He let the Dems attack Biden and bloody him up. Now Trump is trying to goad Biden into staying in.

The longer they wait, the more the Democrats are going to run into problems if they want to swap Biden. There are states with ballot deadlines, fundraising concerns (ie: current funds could not be redirected to anyone but Kamala), and Biden's state is not likely to get better. Not to mention that some voters would likely feel cheated by a last minute switcharoo (an earlier one for anyone but Kamala is still a betrayal of democratic principles, but at least they'd have some time to come to terms with it). In all cases, sitting back and waiting is the right move for Trump. Once they swap Biden and he knows who he'll be facing, or enough deadlines have passed that swapping Biden would be devastating, then he will resume his regularly scheduled shitposting. If he pounces now and deliver a killing blow to Joe's chances they'll swap him out early rather than later (or not at all).

Why would Trump want to risk a better candidate? He’s smart to stay out of it for now.

My point is Trump wants to keep Biden in the race. The current trajectory seems to be Biden drops out. Trump needs to goad Biden into staying and he can’t do that while being silent right now. So the strategic thing (even if tactically unwise) is for Trump to induce a muted rally around the Biden effect to end the bleeding. Leave the horse dead but stop beating it basically.

It would absolutely be a feckless, stupid move to sleepwalk into a disastrous Biden campaign, I don't disagree. But that's exactly what they've been doing?

I doubt their capacity to draw a line, not see the issue. Maybe Biden absolutely shits the bed in the upcoming interview and Obama flies out there. But the fact that it even theoretically needs to get to that stage is damning. And they don't have a lot of time to gather their courage.

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