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Culture War Roundup for the week of July 1, 2024

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Not quite. Bruen also recognized the same laws as historical precedents, but not for the law there in question. I don't have a good enough sense of how the court would continue to apply it more broadly, but I read Rahimi as mostly saying that "if you're dangerous, they can take your guns away." Which, will undoubtedly be attempted to be construed broadly, but Rahimi is clear (see page 15) that this is only allowing bans that show the individual in question a threat, unlike in Bruen, where they struck it down, because it presumed that they were lawful.

That is, it has to be default-legal to carry.

It is ruling only when a court decides that someone presents a threat. It's mentioned in the main opinion several times. For example, in the conclusion:

Rather, we conclude only this: An individual found by a court to pose a credible threat to the physical safety of another may be temporarily disarmed consistent with the Second Amendment.

Section 922(g)(8), which the court upheld:

(8)who is subject to a court order that— (A)was issued after a hearing of which such person received actual notice, and at which such person had an opportunity to participate; (B)restrains such person from harassing, stalking, or threatening an intimate partner of such person or child of such intimate partner or person, or engaging in other conduct that would place an intimate partner in reasonable fear of bodily injury to the partner or child; and (C) (i)includes a finding that such person represents a credible threat to the physical safety of such intimate partner or child; or (ii)by its terms explicitly prohibits the use, attempted use, or threatened use of physical force against such intimate partner or child that would reasonably be expected to cause bodily injury; or

Note (8)(C)(ii), and note the "or" in (8)(C)(i). A court need merely order a person to not do something they're already prohibited from doing, without any finding they they represent a credible threat of any sort, and they lose their firearms rights. They didn't reach the constitutionality of (8)(C)(ii) in Rahimi, but they never will. The lower courts will take this decision as meaning the whole idea of "restraining order = lose firearms rights" is validated, and the Supreme Court will refuse to address the question again.

That is, it has to be default-legal to carry.

LOL, it isn't, not in New York or New Jersey certainly. If I strap a pistol on my hip and walk around my neighborhood, and a cop sees me, I'm going to prison with John Roberts's blessing. And despite there being ample cases to say that they really meant what they said in Bruen, the Supreme Court has taken none of them. The conservatives on the Supreme Court (except Thomas) do not want people to actually carry a gun; they support gun rights in the abstract as part of their high-class debating society, that's all.

Yeah, they definitely left up in the air whether it as a whole is fine. (Though Gorsuch, at least, seemed opposed.)

Fair enough, who knows whether they'll address it again. Why do you think they took Bruen, then, if you think they don't care? It's (mostly) the same justices?

Why do you think they took Bruen, then, if you think they don't care? It's (mostly) the same justices?

They enjoyed the argument. It's not that they don't care; it's that they positively do not want the scenario I've been putting forth -- any unconvicted citizen being able to buy a gun, load it, and carry it into a major Blue city (they're probably mostly thinking Washington, D.C.) legally -- to happen. But they position they've taken in their high-class debate club is that the Second Amendment provides such a right.

Roberts, especially, is fond of decisions with no practical impact. Even with the recent decision striking down application of Sarbanes-Oxley to most Jan 6 protestors did nothing; the defendant in the case had enough other charges against him to put him away forever.

When Obergefell hit, people were getting gay married in every state in weeks if not days. The one resister in the entire country got fired and successfully sued for tens of thousands of dollars. It's been years since Bruen and it's still illegal for me to buy a gun or to carry one. Clearly the Supreme Court can make decisions which have effect; they just chose not to.