Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.
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Notes -
North Korea has officially committed to sending troops to Ukraine. These troops are expected to begin arriving in Ukraine within a month. At the moment, it’s just one engineering brigade. That’s probably true, although I am reminded of the “armed Cuban construction workers” that US troops encountered when the United States invaded Grenada.
I heard that was made up by South Korean news. Source? Of course, they might have some unofficial volunteers there.
https://www.nknews.org/2024/06/fact-check-north-korea-has-not-announced-plans-to-send-troops-to-ukraine-yet/
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Russia
Several dozen people were shot in terrorist attacks in Dagestan this week. It's currently unclear whether this attack is related to the earlier concert hall shooting by ISIS-K, but given the region's history there's no shortage of potential suspects.
Cambodia
This article brought to my attention the ongoing series of joint military exercises between China and Cambodia and the construction of a Chinese naval base on the Gulf of Thailand. It's perhaps not surprising that Cambodia would fall into the Chinese camp given their shared tensions with Vietnam, but it does leave Indonesia as the only Southeast Asian nation that's still up for grabs in this new cold war (and even that chance is slipping given recent Chinese infrastructure investments).
Israel
Israel's Supreme Court has ruled that the Orthodox communities cannot be exempted from the draft, in what was probably an inevitability given their growing percentage of the population.
Bolivia
A coup attempt in Bolivia earlier today failed miserably after the general responsible was arrested on live television. Just another day in Latin America.
Portugal
Apparently tourism in southern Europe has grown so spectacularly since the pandemic that the PIGS economies are now growing faster than Germany. Anecdotally, I hear that Lisbon and Porto are now standing-room only, akin to Kyoto or Venice, which means those looking for a quiet and peaceful European beach vacation should look elsewhere (I'm pretty sure Albania hasn't been "discovered" yet and the locals still love Americans).
Will the Israeli military attempt to accommodate ultra-orthodox requests/religious practices(eg through declining gender integration) or will it just brute force them into regular service.
Some orthodoxes (many actually) serve in special units, and I imagine this can be extended. But many are also much more trouble than it's worth and the army doesn't really need many of them, so many of them could be just low-key dismissed - not in bulk, as it has been done before, but on the individual level. So I imagine it'd be the combination of the two - a bit more (or bigger) orthodox units where the facilities are set up to accept orthodoxes and for those that don't want out too badly, and those who do want out too badly, after suitable harassment to not make it too easy, they'd be let out. Some will also go to the National Service (Sherut Leumi) - the non-military service alternative - which has already accepted Haredi - primarily Haredi women, but also some men - and probably can accommodate more. What is the proportion of who goes which way depends a lot on the wishes and needs of the Army, logistics and politics. E.g. they could figure out a deal where some Yeshivas would do some services that the state needs and would in exchange be classified as part of Sherut Leumi, and so the students there would be in the same position as before, except for doing some other work for a couple of hours every day, for example - it's not the case now, but nothing in the law prevents it. Could be other solutions too. But I don't foresee either all the Army converting to Orthodox practices (both logistically near impossible and the Army just won't do it, and nobody can force them) or the Army pressing Yeshiva students into regular service without any accommodations, since nobody needs a soldier that thinks it's his duty before God to run away. There would be some kind of a deal that would leave Haredim less happy (they'd like to keep the current arrangement obviously) but still happy enough.
That's not too far off from what I expected, TBH. Obviously these guys aren't going to go to jump school and they probably don't have the secular education the IDF is looking for in its technician trainees and bureaucrats. There's only so many soldiers you actually need on KP. It's easier and more efficient to just weed a bunch of them out, either by quietly kicking them into the reserves immediately or by accepting exemption requests that wouldn't be granted for anyone else(I don't know exactly how the IDF is organized but there's gotta be solutions for problem soldiers to just make them be a non-military problem. The US certainly does if the stories I've heard are any indication- and all of our troops at least theoretically want to be there).
Yes, there are. Depending on how bad the person wants out, there are several ways one can avoid being conscripted (or get out if you're already in), though it usually costs certain opportunities and carries certain stigma. Just as in the US it was possible to dodge the draft at certain costs, it is in Israel too, though not too many people do it. The army does not make it easy, but it definitely makes it possible, and sometimes even refuses to accept certain categories of people (Arabs, criminals, drug addicts, people deemed "political extremists", etc.). The question of drafting the Orthodox exists not because the army has a critical lack of manpower, but because of the political implications of the wide segment of people visibly taking money from the state but not contributing back by being part of the military service. Once this setup - which is a source of frustration for many political movements in Israel - is gone, nobody is going to watch over every single Yeshiva student to ensure what happens to them, so I am sure some solution will be found that is workable both for the Army and for the Orthodox leadership.
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I mean, given that Germany is in borderline recession that isn't particularly impressive..
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