This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
The US has been pro-Taiwan since the CCP took over the mainland. What would happen if the PRC invaded a couple small islands was a phony controversy in the 1960 election. Semiconductors may be cover for the US position now, but if that cover goes away due to alternative sources I doubt the US would change positions; there are strong geopolitical motives for an independent Taiwan. That being said, I don't think China plans to invade any time soon.
I’m not reading it the same way.
First of all, we’ve had decades since Mao to recognize Taiwan’s independence. We haven’t, and in fact more states recognize Palestine than Taiwan. When people make the mistake of calling Taiwan a state China will force them to humiliate themselves and publicly disavow Taiwan as a state in order to sell there — the USA doesn’t interfere at all in this ritual. When Taiwan sends its Olympic delegation to France this year, it will be called Chinese Taipei, not Taiwa. None of this signals strong enough support for Taiwan’s independence to risk American blood or treasure on liberating it.
Second, we’re already bleeding hardware and equipment to Ukraine. This limits our options in other areas at least until we stop doing that. Our military supplies are not infinite and if we’re sending weapons systems to Ukraine to fight Russia, starting another war is not going to be easy.
Third, if the chip factory goes away as an issue (which we’re working on), the public case for war is weak. It’s not a strong ally of any sort, it holds little strategic value other than the chip plants, and the cost to defend it is going to be pretty high. This isn’t Iraq that we’ll conquer in a week while Bagdad Bob goes on TV to say there are no tanks in Iraq. China has a pretty strong military, and decent equipment. It’s probably a multi year war
Don't forget that the US is also going to be bleeding hardware, equipment and troops to Israel and the Middle East in short order as well.
Actually, I think the war would be pretty quick - if China and the USA go to war what actually happens is that the entire world burns in nuclear fire and then we have a really tough winter while the survivors try and put civilization back together.
More options
Context Copy link
How's that going for Palestine?
The US and the West in general doesn't officially recognize Taiwan because getting into a war with China over appearances isn't worth it. But it's just appearances. When China bitched about Pelosi going to Taiwan, Pelosi went to Taiwan anyway. When President-Elect Trump talked to the Taiwanese President, China and the US press went apeshit. Trump said the US didn't necessarily have to uphold the One China policy. China did, as they could, nothing. The US is walking a bit of a tightrope -- on the one hand keeping up appearances enough that China doesn't get too offended and do something stupid, and on the other making sure China knows the US is only keeping up appearances so China doesn't think they have carte blanche to do something stupid. But that's been true for decades and it hasn't changed.
The Seventh Fleet likely has rather different needs than Ukraine.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link