This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
I was very confident that Russia would not invade Ukraine beyond taking the Donbas region, so what do I know? But I will once again register high confidence that China will not invade Taiwan. If Taiwan has any will to fight, then an invasion would be devastating. If Taiwan does not have the will to fight, then China can take its time and accomplish its ends with soft power.
Also, let me take this moment to say that this is the fault of midwit foreign policy strategic ambiguity. As the Good Book states: "let your yes be yes and your no be no."
It’s really the fault of those self absorbed dumbasses Nixon and Kissinger that left us with a hundred year ticking time bomb of a diplomatic deal.
Taiwan’s willingness might actually be a non issue if they don’t have capability. Their military is laughably under-supplied and incompetent, their reservists almost completely untrained (and that was before they entirely nuked conscription which will take years to start back up), and all their money goes into fancy toys that would almost certainly be wiped out in the first wave.
I have previously disparaged the Chinese capabilities for amphibious landings, and I stand by my assessment for Chinese inadequacy for air assault or amphibious operations. However, the Taiwanese are the worst conscripts I have ever met, uniquely lacking capability, willingness and mass. Most conscript armies have at least mass on their side, but the Taiwanese are hollowed out root to branch. The Taiwanese seemed to be stuck in a 1980s mentality where their western wunderwaffen outclassed anything China had to a significant degree, but have been simultaneously complacent and dismissive since then. I did an assessment once and was shocked to discover the lack of investment in airbases on the eastern side of the island, with a significant percentage of inventory stationed in western bases exposed to direct SSM assault. They may have shifted assets to the Eastern bases since, but the standing assumption at the time seemed to be 'air force will contest directly and establish air superiority over the Taiwan strait'. A tragic reliance on wunderwaffen, a paraplegic domestic army and a population only supportive of the government because of hatred for West Taiwan... If China ever lands, say, 10k boots on the ground (I doubt that), Taiwan cannot resist at all.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
I agree with you. I think that if China takes Taiwan it will be without firing a shot after they achieve naval and trade dominance. Think 10+ years in the future.
Non-sequitur: One thing that's been overlooked recently is that Chinese chip production is actually getting pretty good. Shanghai-based SMIC is making 5nm chips now. Within 5 years, they could be competitive with TSMC. We might soon live in a world where China is banning chip exports to the U.S., not the other way around.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link