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PaperclipPerfector  3mo ago (text post)   3920 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for June 23, 2024

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

Culture war topics are accepted, and proposals for a better intro post are appreciated.

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Is anyone betting on the election? I'd like to put a pile of money on Biden, but the odds are so even that I'm worried exchange fees would make leaving it in a money market fund a better investment.
Can anyone who's done this before give me a rough idea of costs, especially hidden or opportunity ones a beginner might miss?

I hope you waited.

Oh yeah, much better odds now. Still convinced it's a good call

Why?

Look how smoothly they reinstated the narrative after that disaster. It's been a day and it may as well never have happened, complete memory-holing. Just go to /r/politics and it's wall to wall "undecideds now support Biden after debate!"

Dems control everything in this country. All we can do is point out the spreading cracks as fast as they paper over them.

Are we going to win against a political machine that collects as many mail-in ballots as they need to win any election?

May as well make a bit of money off the spectacle at least.

I don't think there's mail ballot fraud at the scale needed. Do you have any reason to think so?

Ballot harvesting isn't even "fraud", any more than busing people to the polling center with a list of people to vote for and then taking them to a free concert. It's just a lot more efficient.

It's how the whole system works in WA now.

Ah, that makes sense, I'd misunderstood.

Well, be sure you don't take Washington as the national baseline. Trump's up in all the swing states, though by an admittelly small margin in several.

Biden certainly has a chance, though.

I honestly hope betting on these kinds of things never becomes normalized. Seriously, the amount of radio commentary that revolves around betting and fantasy teams makes me wonder if anyone watches sports purely for pleasure anymore. The last thing we need is for our political ecosystem to devolve to the same level of discourse.

To actually answer your question, only bet if you think the odds the bookie gives you are wrong. If the odds are even and you think the election is a toss up then don't bet. If you think Biden will win in a landslide then put a few dollars down. If you're rooting for Trump and you're hoping that a financial stake in a Biden victory will make you feel better if he wins, keep in mind that never works.

Why doesn't that work?

Because you're still going to be pissed about whatever you lost either way. The amount of money you might win due to a Biden victory probably isn't going to be life changing, and if it is, then you're going to be rooting for Biden anyway and not caring too much about the politics. It's like betting against your favorite sports team.

Will certainly be a fun ride to watch the action.

There's been a lot of speculation that Biden will be "hot-swapped" after he malfunctions during the debate. So even if, based on your posting history, you think the Democrats will rig the election, a Biden bet might not be a sure thing.

Personally, I'd bet on Trump.

Yeah, I should have said "bet on dem victory" rather than Biden specifically, but that pushes the odds they're giving even further towards no-profit coinflip

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