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I totally agree. But I think there's a subtle additional thing going on, similar to what happened with the left wing courts in the 1960s. There you had an opinion like Griswold whose central holding held on for a while (at least 60 years) but whose reasoning and implied test did not survive. I don't think we have a good word for this -- a case whose holding stands but whose reasoning and methodology were replaced later. It wouldn't be right to say it was overruled or distinguished.
So by analogy, I think there is a strong majority on the Court for the central holding of Bruen (or the Bruen/McDonald/Heller line, if you will) but there may be a subtle shift in the specific test that it endorsed. I don't think there's 6 votes for a balancing test or anything like that, but I think there a few pro-Bruen-the-holding votes that would rather endorse a different test than the historical test that it laid out.
If I'm playing legal realism, I think the right wing of the court made a mistake assigning Bruen to CT rather than Roberts or Alito just like Griswold should not have been to Douglas. Not because I think CT is the lesser jurist, just because his opinion doesn't command 6 votes for its method, only its conclusion.
EDIT: Allegedly Roberts and Kav wouldn't even sign on to the original Bruen until it was changed. We'll never know what was in the draft or what the changes were, but it seems to me that having either Roberts or Kav author the majority opinion (to which CT could concur in judgement-plus-I-would-go-much-further, as he does) would have been better.
[ And if I may, ping /u/gattsuru for his usually insightful thoughts. ]
Griswold made contraceptives legal. Contraceptives are still legal in all 50 states. Bruen/McDonald/Heller did nothing. In New York City, you went from not being able to carry a gun because you couldn't get a carry permit, to perhaps being able to get a carry permit (though it's not clear that they're actually issuing them) but it no longer allows you to carry a gun. Griswold may have suffered some damage; Bruen was dead on arrival and Rahimi is its quiet burial.
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