The phrase "defensive alliance" is ambiguous. The rival meanings are not inherently incompatible. But in practise they tend in opposite directions. When the ambiguity is resolved some-one feels cheated.
To see the problem picture four countries, Timidland, Moralland, Weakland, and Aggroland. Timidland is spending more on defence than it wants to because it fears being attacked by Aggroland. Moralland is also spending more than it wants to on defence because it too fears attack by Aggroland. But the internal politics of Moralland are complicated. The moral thing to do is to build a larger army, attack Aggroland and liberate the people of Aggroland from the tyranny of the Chief Aggro. Or is that the moral thing to do? Isn't war bad?
Timidland and Moralland form an alliance. It is a "defensive alliance" meaning that Timidland will come to Moralland's aid if Aggroland attacks Moralland. But the people of Timidland are aware of the complicated internal politics of Moralland and it is explicit that if Moralland attacks Aggroland, then Moralland is on its own. Even instigating voids the alliance.
The problem arises because history isn't that neat. The 1914-1918 war starts with the Austro-Hungarian Empire giving an ultimatum to Serbia, Russia comes to Serbia's aid, Germany comes to Austria's aid, France and Britain have alliances to honour and end up fighting. If we want political theory to relate to the real world, we need to think about Moralland extending guarantees to Weakland.
Aggroland invades Weakland. Moralland supplies weapons to Weakland. And advisers. Eventually troops. Moralland artillery is shelling Aggroland invaders on Weakland soil from positions in Moralland. Counter battery fire from Aggrotroops in Weakland is hitting positions in Moralland. Does this trigger the defensive alliance and suck Timidland into the war?
Some Timidians argue that they never agreed to give guarantees to Weakland. Given the complicated history of the region, they would have refused to get involved if they had been asked. Others are saying that Moralland are the good guys. Of course Timidland must join the war. What use is a defensive alliance is you don't defend your allies? Peaceful Timidians feel that they have been out manoeuvred, and are being forced to honour guarantees to Weakland that they never made.
If Timidland is pulled into the war by the chains of the alliance, we can be more specific than calling it a defensive alliance. It was a "chaining alliance".
But what should we call a non-chaining alliance? I've picked the word "isolating". That is clearly wrong in theory. The terms of the alliance don't forbid Moralland from extending security guarantees to Weakland, they merely classify that as instigating; Moralland cannot call upon Timidland to help honour the guarantee.
But theory and practice disagree. The internal politics of Moralland has its guns-before-butter faction. They saw the alliance as a matter of building military strength, with a view to regime change in Aggroland, to save the world from the danger presented by the Chief Aggro. Moralland also has a butter-before-guns faction, that see the alliance as an opportunity to economise on defence spending, freeing up money for schools, hospitals, road, pensions, police, industrial policy, the climate emergency, tax cuts,... The list is endless. We see the likely outcome in Europe. NATO agrees that all members should spend at least 2% of GDP on defence. Most don't. The other priorities take precedence. In practice the non-chaining alliance leads to Moralland cutting defence spending. They are after all moral and pensioners deserve higher pensions, etc. The guns-before-butter faction are aghast to find that they have been out manoeuvred. They nearly had the army that they needed to protect Weakland from Aggroland. The alliance with Timidland was supposed to add to the army. In practise it subtracted. Moralland's own army has shrunk and Timidland's army is not available. The isolating alliance has left them isolated, unable to offer security guarantees to Weakland.
Obviously my fine distinction has contemporary resonances, but after World War Three reduces Europe and America to radioactive rubble, the run up to World War Four will involve China, India, Brazil, and Indonesia. Will they continue the tradition of talking about defensive alliances? Or will they embrace the distinction between chaining alliances and isolating alliances? I locate this essay in the British tradition of analytic philosophy, looking at words and attempting to resolve their ambiguities. Not all ambiguities; just those with large consequences.
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Well, the Germans are allegedly relooking conscription, so there is the prospect of light and motorized infantry.
Yea, the Federal Minister of Defense has made a proposal to that point, but I wouldn't count on it going anywhere. I's the kind of thing that gets shot down regularly.
So far there have been no tangible, substantial changes that I am aware of. 100 billion € were provided to the military as a special fund, but I'm not aware of anything that would have come of it. Given our MoD's reputation for rampant grift and wastefulness, money alone will probably not fix anything.
I'd agree on conscription passing as a standing policy per see, but I wouldn't be surprised if the infrastructure behind it is renovated.
Nor, frankly, would I be surprised if in the next few years Germany and a number of other European countries look to the migrant population as a potential military manpower fix, in a service-for-residence sort of way. There is increasing reporting that Russia is turning towards not only trying to solicit foreign volunteers on the basis of promising jobs, but coercing foreign students and workers in Russia to fight by threatening to not extend visas and such.
For Russia, that's eating the seed-corn for what the normal purpose of such study programs are for (to educate and shape a more sympathetic technical/potential future elites) by deterring as high-class potential visitors, but for Europe deterring illegal migrants would be a domestic political win in and of itself.
Forgive the hour-long video, but Perun did a video on the institutional challenges facing the hundred billion fund two years ago, which is always good if you want to be depressed.
I wish I shared your optimism on migrant populations fitness for service. Absent domestic security considerations of training foederati, the migrant populations are by their own definition unfit for purpose, and in practiced reality require extensive secondary training to reach baseline competency. PT, basic drill, chain of command... its quite a shit experience trying to get normies to do that, let alone uncooperative aliens. Don't even start considering battle drills, I wouldn't trust these guys to inventory shit properly.
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