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Notes -
What are the odds for Rassemblement National to win a majority in the National Assembly?
$6 for RN to have a straight up majority
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I think the polls suggest they’ll probably get 20-60 seats short of an outright majority.
Which, of course, means they have no power at all. In fact, the more seats they get (short of an absolute majority), the more power the far left has. Unless Ciotti wins his fight, but I suspect what will happen is the wrangling will go on until Ciotti loses.
Ah, but you forget yourself. Even if they win a majority, there's always the bureaucracy of the deep state, the judiciary, the media and the academy ready to block any meaningful changes.
This, but unironically.
France isn't Germany or the USA; the law of the sword is a lot closer to the surface there - remember, they've had a constitution fail and get replaced within living memory, and French history for the last few centuries is mostly just one bloodbath after another (this is the French Fifth Republic).
Defying the mob there is not a safe proposition.
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